How Americans describe their political identities
Plus: The politics of Swifties, using ChatGPT to sort ideology, LA-GOV on Saturday
No. 288 | October 13, 2023
📊 Public Opinion
David Montgomery: How Americans label their own political identities (YouGov)
“Some labels are more popular than others. Topping the list are two normally opposed labels that activists deliberately crafted to be appealing: “pro-choice” (33%) and “pro-life” (29%). Other popular labels include “conservative” (28%), “moderate” (21%), “progressive” (18%).
On the other end, just 1% say “anarchist” is a good description of their politics, while only 4% say the same about each of “radical” or “populist.”
Americans are more willing to say labels describe their politics “partially,” with more than half saying the most popular labels describe them to this extent.”
🔬 Academia
🗳️ Elections
Nathaniel Rakich and G. Elliott Morris: 538 has new state-level Republican primary polling averages (538)
“If all you look at is national polls of the 2024 Republican presidential primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley doesn't look all that strong. As of Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern, she has only 7 percent support in 538's national polling average. But parties don't pick their presidential nominees using national primaries, so those national numbers don't give us a complete picture of the race.
For that, you need to look at state polls. That's why 538 is pleased to announce that we're unveiling polling averages for individual Republican state caucuses and primaries, which begin just a few short months from now in snowy Iowa and New Hampshire. And our state-level averages reveal that candidates such as Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott are in better shape in those early states than they are nationally, giving them hope that an early win or two could still propel them to the nomination.
That said, let's not miss the forest for the trees: Former President Donald Trump still has a dominant lead in these early states — almost as big as his lead nationally. So it's still very possible that the 2024 Republican nomination won't be much of a contest.”
Geoffrey Skelley: Republicans look favored to flip Louisiana’s governorship (538)
“Louisiana is undoubtedly a red state. But in 2015 and 2019, it went against the grain by electing and reelecting Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards. As a result, Louisiana — which former President Donald Trump carried by 19 percentage points in 2020 — is the second-most Republican-leaning state with a Democratic governor, behind only Kentucky. On Saturday, though, Louisianans will head to the polls to potentially decide their next governor, and it looks like a red wave could wash over the blue bayou.”
Louisiana 2023: The Road to Saturday’s Primary (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
“In the 2022 midterm elections, one area where Democrats most obviously beat historical expectations were the gubernatorial contests. Despite defending several marginal states, Democrats came out with a net gain of governorships. While it was impressive that Democrats held up well in states that are typically competitive — such examples include Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin — their overall net gain was due to flipping a pair of solidly blue northeastern states: Maryland and Massachusetts. In the former, Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) was term-limited while, in the latter, Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA) decided against seeking a third term. But the outcome was the same in both cases: as popular governors from the non-dominant state party left office, their states reverted to their baseline partisanship, giving Democratic candidates healthy victories. (Only two other states changed, as Democrats flipped marginal Arizona and Republicans flipped marginal Nevada).
If the 2022 gubernatorial cycle was disappointing for Republicans, some good news may be on the horizon for the GOP. Even if they come up short in Kentucky’s closely-watched contest, where Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is a modest favorite to secure a second term, Louisiana may essentially act as a “replacement” for either Maryland or Massachusetts.”
Harrison Lavelle: Virginia Temperature Check: 10/12 (Split Ticket)
“Today we’re updating our legislative forecast in Virginia for the first time since February. The ratings changes reflect the assumption that the political environment is at least more Democratic than it was last year. Our recent special elections analysis goes into the subject in more detail.
In short, we’re expecting Democrats to flip Virginia’s House of Delegates while retaining control of the State Senate — denying Governor Glenn Youngkin a trifecta. Most of our ratings changes reflect a broad theme: down-ballot lag remains a valuable asset for established Republican incumbents in well-educated, suburban districts, especially in off-year election cycles, but the ongoing realignment, accelerated by the Dobbs effect, could help Democrats chip away at historical precedent.”
@rudnicknoah: Third parties are polling high now but the sum of around 15 or 16% is pretty similar to 2016 (they ended at 6% total). Expect them to poll high for awhile, going back to 2016 polling we didn't see a drop until the October before the election (X)
👫 Demographics
Besheer Mohamed and Michael Rotolo: Religion Among Asian Americans (Pew Research Center)
“Like the U.S. public as a whole, a growing percentage of Asian Americans are not affiliated with any religion, and the share who identify as Christian has declined, according to a new Pew Research Center survey exploring religion among Asian American adults.
But the survey also shows that 40% of Asian Americans say they feel close to some religious tradition for reasons aside from religion. For example, just 11% of Asian American adults say their religion is Buddhism, but 21% feel close to Buddhism for other reasons, such as family background or culture.”
I’m a subject in that YouGov panel, and I’m concerned about the response rate of younger people.