Hispanic turnaround in Arizona, how McCormick won, Virginia & New Jersey preview, Garden State realignment, the narrowest House majorities, where Feds work, theories of the American voter
A look at how the Harris campaign spent more than a billion dollars in 107 days.
Tom Bonier with a Democratic postmortem on Arizona. Startling/fun fact: new young Hispanic male registrants went from D+19 in 2020 to D+7 in 2022 to R+7 in 2024.
Must-listen podcast with Mark Harris, Dave McCormick’s GC, with a tick-tock on the Senate upset of the cycle.
“Mark goes deep on his role helping elect Dave McCormick to the US Senate - starting with
McCormick's ill-fated '22 race...getting back on the horse in '24...clearing the GOP field...challenging a proven Pennsylvania political institution...and ultimately winning a close race many pundits expected to break toward the Democratic incumbent.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball breaks out how big counties vote compared to the rest of the country.
The Intersection is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
🇺🇲 2025
538 has a curtain-raiser on the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races, the first major elections of the second Trump presidency.
Speaking of New Jersey, the 2024 realignment in North Jersey was insane when you break things out at the precinct level.
With DOGE gearing up, Pew Research takes a look at data on Federal workers ahead of the start of Trump’s second term.
The New York Times has a visual recap on the destructiveness of the LA fires.
📰 Data Journalism
Derek Thompson’s tour-de-force on how Americans have been spending more and more time alone, especially after Covid.
Self-imposed solitude might just be the most important social fact of the 21st century in America. Perhaps unsurprisingly, many observers have reduced this phenomenon to the topic of loneliness. In 2023, Vivek Murthy, Joe Biden’s surgeon general, published an 81-page warning about America’s “epidemic of loneliness,” claiming that its negative health effects were on par with those of tobacco use and obesity. A growing number of public-health officials seem to regard loneliness as the developed world’s next critical public-health issue. The United Kingdom now has a minister for loneliness. So does Japan.
Very useful look at various theories of the American voter. While this table is from 1956, the groups and their relative sizes are probably not that far off.
Great job. Would be interesting to know what “credit card payment” of 20+ million means. To whom and for what.