Iowa preview, Americans on the edge (of politics)
Who Republicans see as the most conservative, Pew's 2024 demographic profiles, what's next for AI
No. 299 | January 12, 2024
🗳️ Elections
Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman: Previewing the Iowa Caucus (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
“There is an old saying that there are ‘three tickets out of Iowa,’ meaning that the traditional kickoff caucus doesn’t necessarily anoint the presidential nominees, but it does serve a purpose in winnowing often-bloated presidential primary fields. As we will discuss below, Iowa does indeed have a spotty record of supporting the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side.
It is also the case that finishing in the top three in Iowa has not been a prerequisite for winning the nomination. In recent cycles, both 2008 GOP nominee John McCain and 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden finished fourth in Iowa but still ended up winning their party’s respective nominations in races that ultimately were not even that close.”
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