Is Blexas un-canceled?

Historic lows for incumbents, the base matters more than ever, the politics of 18-year olds, the cheapest races, people who use AI like it, the FiveThirtyEight archive, booming prediction markets

No. 403 | May 29, 2026

🤠 Do Democrats have a shot in Texas?

The Texas Senate race is set after Donald Trump ousted his second incumbent Republican Senator this month. Nate Cohn makes the argument that a blue Texas blue Texas isn’t just a dream for Democrats anymore — using current national polling, you can get to a place where it’s a better pickup opportunity for Democrats than Ohio or Alaska based on demographics alone:

Or consider another example: Imagine we adjusted the results of the last presidential election by shifting each racial demographic group’s support to match the latest Times/Siena poll results. Based on the poll’s findings, Texas would be expected to tilt Democratic in this national political environment. Interestingly, the other red states Democrats are targeting in their pursuit of Senate control — like Ohio and Alaska — would still remain red in this exercise, even though each voted more Democratic in 2024 than Texas. That’s because Democratic gains among nonwhite vot…