Is this thing back on?

Models, polling averages, and crosstab aggregates galore, younger Black voters, the VP bump, that Ohio special, intergenerational mobility, childless Americans, just how bad we are at focusing

No. 324 | August 8, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

The forecast models and polling averages that went offline with Biden’s withdrawal have slowly started turning back on. Nate Silver’s relaunched model now sees a tossup race.

538 is back with its polling average — no word yet on its forecast, which showed Biden at nearly even odds despite dismal polling before dropping out.