Is this thing back on?

Models, polling averages, and crosstab aggregates galore, younger Black voters, the VP bump, that Ohio special, intergenerational mobility, childless Americans, just how bad we are at focusing

No. 324 | August 8, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

The forecast models and polling averages that went offline with Biden’s withdrawal have slowly started turning back on. Nate Silver’s relaunched model now sees a tossup race.

538 is back with its polling average — no word yet on its forecast, which showed Biden at nearly even odds despite dismal polling before dropping out.  

The averages at this writing: 

• 538: Harris +1.5

• RCP: Trump +1.2

• The Hill/DDHQ: Trump +0.1

• Cook Political: Trump +1.1

• NYT Upshot: Trump +1

• VoteHub: Trump +0.4

One thing to note about the polls vs. a full field: those polls tend to now favor Harris slightly, after they favored Trump all year, as discontented Democrats parking on RFK Jr. appear to have come home. 

With its new Trump vs. Harris average, the Cook Political Report also launches a crosstab aggregator, a first for the major averages. So far, there’s not much sign of racial depolarization going away — Trump is at 20% with Black voters and within 10 among Hispanic voters, but the polls are unusually fluid right now. 

Intuitively, however, we’d expect Harris to do better among core Democratic groups than Biden, writes Nate Cohn. He visualizes the deterioration in the Democratic base under Biden that now serves as an opportunity for Harris: 

Over at 538, Dan Hopkins documents how younger Black voters have increasingly become a swing group.

Harry Enten thinks we’re back on track for record turnout this fall. 

The edge that a VP candidate gives a presidential candidate in their home state is 0.4 points — which is not nothing in a state like Pennsylvania. 

Remember that Ohio special election in June where Democrats massively overperformed? Voter file data shows that it all came down to a difference in turnout: 50 percent of Democrats from the state primary showed up, compared to just 30 percent of Republicans. 

You can win a primary — and then go on to win a safe seat in Congress — with as little as 24% of the vote. 

🔬 Academia

Latest Raj Chetty paper just dropped. It finds Blacks narrowing intergenerational income gaps with whites, but the intergenerational class divide — between people born in high or low income households — is as persistent as ever and is getting worse for low-income whites. 

🗣️ Public Opinion

Almost half of Americans under 50 are unlikely to ever want children, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center. Here are the policies Americans say would help people have more kids: 

Americans are also increasingly pessimistic about trade, with most saying the U.S. has lost more than it has gained.

🗺️ Data Visualization

The New York Times asked people to focus on a painting for 10 minutes. 3 in 4 people couldn’t do it.