Is Trump falling short of expectations?

What "uncommitted" means for 2024, NY Dems go mild not wild, a history of ticket-splitting, polling on Ozempic, the MENA Census category

No. 305 | March 1, 2024

🗳️ Elections

Nate Cohn: Three Theories for Why Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations (The New York Times)

“It’s still early in the primary season, but a whiff of a possible polling error is already in the air.

That’s because Donald J. Trump has underperformed the polls in each of the first three contests.

In Iowa, the final 538 polling average showed Mr. Trump leading Nikki Haley by 34 points with a 53 percent share. He ultimately beat her by 32 points with 51 percent. (Ron DeSantis took second.)

In New Hampshire, he led by 18 points with 54 percent. In the end, he won by 11 points with 54 percent.”

Nate Cohn: What Does the Uncommitted Vote in Michigan Mean for 2024? (The New York Times)

“In Tuesday night’s results in Michigan, around one in eight Democrats voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary — a protest of the Biden administration’s policies toward Israel and the war in Gaza.

In some predominantly Arab American precincts in Dearborn, around t…