Is Trump's electoral college advantage fading?

Plus: Why 2024 might be a referendum on Trump not Biden, another look at Biden's nonwhite fade, a new campaign simulation, and red flags for dating

No. 284 | September 15, 2023

🗳️ Elections

Nate Cohn: Trump’s Electoral College Edge Seems to Be Fading (The New York Times)

“The early polls show Donald J. Trump and President Biden tied nationwide. Does that mean Mr. Trump has a clear advantage in the battleground states that decide the Electoral College?

It’s a reasonable question, and one I see quite often. In his first two presidential campaigns, Mr. Trump fared far better in the battleground states than he did nationwide, allowing him to win the presidency while losing the national vote in 2016 and nearly doing it again in 2020. But there’s a case that his Electoral College advantage has faded.”

Ariel Edwards-Levy: Why a 2024 Trump-Biden rematch might be more of a referendum on Trump than Biden (CNN)

“Presidential reelection bids tend to revolve around the incumbent’s performance in office. But a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump could upend that dynamic, polling suggests, with most voters…