It's the vibes, stupid

A possible peak for Harris, instantaneous shifts in polls, social media, and voter registration, what to look for beyond the topline, another Pennsylvania deep dive

No. 326 | August 16, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

The polling averages stand as follows, with further 0.4 point gain for Harris this week (marked in parentheses), on top of a 1.1 point gain last week. 

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +2.4 (H+0.3)

• The 538 average: Harris +2.6 (H+0.6)

• NYT Upshot: Harris +2 (H+1)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +1.8 (H+2.0)

• RCP: Harris +1.0 (H+0.5)

• Cook Political: Harris +0.4 (T+0.2)

• VoteHub: Harris +1.0  (H+0.3)

Average of the Averages: Harris +1.7 (H+0.4)

Nate Silver sees signs of a top for Harris, but particularly with next week’s Democratic convention, we should be wary of calling one. 

The New York Times/Siena poll finds that Democrats across the battlegrounds are just much more satisfied with Harris than they were with Biden.

Civiqs’ daily trendline data, the best out there, shows that the shifting vibes among Democrats took hold almost instantaneously, wit…