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It's the vibes, stupid

A possible peak for Harris, instantaneous shifts in polls, social media, and voter registration, what to look for beyond the topline, another Pennsylvania deep dive

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Patrick Ruffini
Aug 16, 2024
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No. 326 | August 16, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

The polling averages stand as follows, with further 0.4 point gain for Harris this week (marked in parentheses), on top of a 1.1 point gain last week. 

  • Silver Bulletin: Harris +2.4 (H+0.3)

  • The 538 average: Harris +2.6 (H+0.6)

  • NYT Upshot: Harris +2 (H+1)

  • The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +1.8 (H+2.0)

  • RCP: Harris +1.0 (H+0.5)

  • Cook Political: Harris +0.4 (T+0.2)

  • VoteHub: Harris +1.0  (H+0.3)

Average of the Averages: Harris +1.7 (H+0.4)

Nate Silver sees signs of a top for Harris, but particularly with next week’s Democratic convention, we should be wary of calling one. 

The New York Times/Siena poll finds that Democrats across the battlegrounds are just much more satisfied with Harris than they were with Biden.

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Civiqs’ daily trendline data, the best out there, shows that the shifting vibes among Democrats took hold almost instantaneously, wit…

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