Low-propensity blues
Rich whites are turning into Democrats, voter pessimism, state legislative outlook, Biden's double-hater strategy
No. 320 | June 21, 2024
🇺🇲 2024
The Upshot dives deep into a recurring theme: lower-turnout voters choosing Trump—potentially scrambling the parties’ historic approach to GOTV.
A Washington Post poll dives deep into “the deciders” — who disproportionately come from low-turnout groups. They’re younger, more diverse, and more dissatisfied.
Something to watch out for: Higher turnout widening Trump’s margins in swing states — but also those of Democratic Senate incumbents.
Anti-populist Trump-era backlash is mostly among whites in the top quintile of the income distribution.
A new AEI poll shows widespread pessimism about the future.
The Republican Party goes on defense as it seeks to protect seven of the twelve contested chambers in upcoming state legislative races.
The Biden campaign is going after double-haters with ”cares about people like you.”
New Presidential forecast model. I really like the state correlations feature. Check it out.
Binging on primary night tweets? Here’s a nifty tool showing the share of outstanding votes a candidate needs to win given a certain percentage of the vote reported.
🌎 Global
A Pew Research study reports that a recent decline in satisfaction with democracy has emerged across several high-income democratic countries.
🗣️ Public Opinion
Have the economic blues? An ABC News article with 538 shows that changes in changes in consumer behavior since the COVID-19 pandemic may explain why.