Maximum anxiety

Predicting turnout, the freakout over polls, the freakout over early voting, the see-sawing media race, unmarried women for Harris, young nonwhite men for Trump

No. 336 | October 25th, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

24,040,251 Americans have voted, per TargetSmart. 

Substantial (for 2024) movement in the averages this week, with Harris’s lead going from 2.4 to 1.4. This is where you’ll start to see outright Trump leads in some polls. 

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +1.3 (T+1.5)

• 538: Harris +1.7 (T+0.6)

• NYT Upshot: Harris +1 (T+1)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +1.0 (T+1.8)

• RCP: Harris +0.2 (T+1.4)

• Cook Political: Harris +1.5 (T+0.5)

• VoteHub: Harris +2.1 (T+0.4)

• RacetotheWH: Harris +2.0 (T+1.0)

Average of the Averages: Harris +1.4 (T+1.0)

Let’s check in on the Cook Political crosstab aggregator, which has Harris potentially expanding on Biden’s margins with White College voters but Trump polling well ahead of his 2020 vote share among Black and Hispanic voters. 

This week, Echelon released its turnout estimates for 2024: 153.7 million votes. 

We were within 1 million votes in 2020 but high in 2022 because enthusiasm from 2020 did not carry into the Biden presidency. With a full four year p…