Misleading youth vote indicators

538 launches its 2024 polling average, half of voters would replace Biden and Trump, Americans support mass deportation, how pollsters are fighting fraud, the NFL draft trading floor

No. 312 | April 26, 2024

Nate Silver: Don't Confuse Attention-Seeking Activists for "The Youth Vote"  (Silver Bulletin)

“What explains Democrats’ way-above-average performance in the 2022 midterms? The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade? Republicans nominating the worst imaginable candidates in nearly every competitive Senate race? Democrats benefiting from a college-educated base that turns out reliably in midterms and other non-presidential elections? Yes, yes and yes.

A tsunami of young voters going to the polls? No. In fact, that’s complete bullshit. This story from Business Insider, and others like it, are fake news. The premise that young voters flocked to the polls is a lie.

According to the Edison Research exit polls that most networks use, the percentage of voters aged 18-29 declined from 13 percent in 2018 to 12 percent in 2022. And Democrats’ share of the youth vote fell too, from 67 percent in 2018 to 63 percent in 2022. 

Catalist estimates also had the youth vote…