My piece in The Atlantic

The triple Trump swing counties, new racial voting data by state, Republicans' re-emerging electoral college advantage, persuasion beats turnout, don’t stress about demographics, 2026 wave unlikely

No. 362 | May 30th, 2025

🇺🇲 2024

I wrote a piece for The Atlantic arguing that Americans’ political preferences are increasingly dictated by their cultural and ideological preferences rather than their social and communal ties.

The realignment of the working class, which helped Trump win in 2016, would not stop with white voters. In 2020 and 2024, the realignment came for nonwhite voters. A basic tenet of the Democratic Party—that of being a group-interest-based coalition—was abandoned as the party’s ideologically moderate and conservative nonwhite adherents began to peel off in a mass re-sorting of the electorate. The Democratic analyst David Shor estimates that Democrats went from winning 81 percent of Hispanic moderates in 2016 to just 58 percent in 2024. And these voters were now voting exactly how you would expect them to, given their ideologies: conservatives for the party on the right, moderates split closer to either party.

This explanation for political realignment should conce…