My Wall Street Journal op-ed
Seniors for Biden, surprises in 50,000 YouGov/Economist interviews, changing party coalitions, the politics of sporting events
No. 310 | April 12, 2024
🗳️ Elections
Patrick Ruffini: Latino and Black Voters Could Elect Trump (The Wall Street Journal)
“American politics may be on the verge of a racial realignment. Polls show Donald Trump within striking distance of a majority among Hispanic voters and as much as 20% of the black vote. That would be an unprecedented showing for a Republican in modern times. Among white voters, polls show little change since 2020, meaning that shifts among nonwhite voters could decide the election. If even a modest realignment happens, Mr. Trump will almost certainly win. If it doesn’t, he is the underdog.
The GOP’s voting base is changing, but the Republican campaign apparatus and donors haven’t fully woken up to it. The time for aggressive investments to register and mobilize new voters was yesterday.
As Republicans have gained working-class voters and lost college-educated ones, the party has ended up on the back foot in special elections. These contests tend to be decided by affl…
