New York City's swing neighborhoods

One Virginia candidate's hometown disadvantage, the Democrats' losing coalition, free trade is now popular, the ideological happiness gap, AI users can't remember their work

No. 364 | June 20th, 2025

🇺🇲 2025

Michael Lange has a must-read on the five bellwether neighborhoods in Tuesday’s Democratic primary in New York City between frontrunners Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani. Lange’s battlegrounds are:

• Bedford-Stuyvesant: Cuomo’s strong Black voter support (with a projected 50% lead) faces Mamdani’s appeal to young renters and AOC supporters in this gentrifying area, tied by Eric Adams and Maya Wiley (10,786 votes each) in 2021.

• Jackson Heights, Elmhurst, Corona, East Elmhurst: Mamdani’s South Asian base and AOC’s support challenge Cuomo’s name recognition in Hispanic Corona and Black East Elmhurst, mirroring 2021’s tight 161-ballot race.

• Parkchester: Cuomo’s past dominance (80%+ in the 2018 primary) is tested by Mamdani’s canvassing of Bangladeshi and African voters with AOC’s local endorsement in this diverse Bronx community.

• Upper Manhattan: Cuomo leads in Harlem with Black support, but Mamdani’s Morningside Heights edge and Lander’s cross-endorsements coul…