No one knows which ads work
Even losing candidates win, how to measure identity, what voters want in a president, Taylor Swift conspiracy theory registers in polling
No. 303 | February 16, 2024
🔬 Academia
Jessica Piper: Nobody knows which political ads work and why (Politico)
“Some political ads work a lot better than others. But nobody really knows what will reliably make an ad click with voters.
That’s one of the major findings of a new study from researchers who analyzed data from Swayable, a platform used by Democrats to test the effectiveness of different messages and advertisements.
The study analyzed more than 600 ads produced by more than 50 campaigns and outside groups across the 2018 and 2020 cycles. Some ads are definitely more effective at influencing vote choice than others, the researchers found, but what voters respond to year-over-year is far less clear.”
🗳️ Elections
Kaleigh Rogers: Even a losing presidential campaign can have benefits (538)
“There comes a time in every presidential primary season when the number of candidates who have suspended their campaigns eclipses those still running. This year, we hit that point in January, and it's all but a foregone conclusion at this point that 2024 will be a rematch of 2020.
You may find yourself wondering, what was the point of it all? Why did so many serious politicians (read: not the fringe candidates) spend all the time, energy and money to run a presidential campaign when they were probably never going to win a popularity contest with former President Donald Trump among Republican voters?”
📊 Public Opinion
Scott Keeter, Anna Brown, and Dana Popky: Who Are You? The Art and Science of Measuring Identity (Pew Research Center)
“As a shop that studies human behavior through surveys and other social scientific techniques, we have a good line of sight into the contradictory nature of human preferences. Today, we’re calling out one of those that affects us as pollsters: categorizing our survey participants in ways that enhance our understanding of how people think and behave.
Here’s the tension: On the one hand, many humans really like to group other humans into categories. Think, “Women are more likely to vote Democratic and men to vote Republican.” It helps us get a handle on big, messy trends in societal thought. To get this info, surveys need to ask each respondent how they would describe themselves.”
Karlyn Bowman: Turning Mr. Right Into Mr. President (Discourse)
“As we do every four years, Americans are looking again for the best man to lead the nation.
Well, not quite. One of the biggest changes in what Americans want in a candidate comes from the headline above: We are no longer looking for Mr. Right, but the best man or woman for the job. In 1937, when Gallup first asked about supporting a woman for president, only a third of adults said they would vote for her. That response is virtually unanimous now. What else do surveys tell us about what Americans want in their presidential candidates?“
Nearly 1 in 5 Believe Taylor Swift Election Conspiracy Theory (Monmouth University)
“West Long Branch, NJ – Just under 1 in 5 Americans believe the singer Taylor Swift is part of a covert effort to help President Joe Biden win the 2024 election. At the same time, the Monmouth University Poll also finds that most Americans are supportive of efforts by Swift to encourage her fans to vote.
Just under half (46%) of the American public has heard something about Swift being part of a supposed covert government effort to help Biden win the 2024 presidential election. Just under 1 in 5 Americans (18%) believe such a conspiracy involving Swift exists. Fully 71% of those who believe this identify with or lean toward the Republican Party and 83% indicate they are likely to support Donald Trump in the fall.”
👫 Demographics
