On to New Hampshire
The party decides, the demographic divide behind Trump's first win, an early look at reapportionment, and "climate matching."
No. 300 | January 19, 2024
🗳️ Elections
Dante Scala: A Roadmap for the New Hampshire GOP Primary (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
“The winnowing of the GOP presidential field both before (Chris Christie) and after (Vivek Ramaswamy) Donald Trump’s big victory in Iowa reduces the field of notable Republican presidential contenders to just three: Trump, along with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Unlike Iowa, New Hampshire may produce a close finish. This would not be unusual for the Granite State: 3 of the last 6 competitive presidential primaries have been decided by fewer than 10 percentage points (Bernie Sanders edged out Pete Buttigieg in the 2020 Democratic primary, while both Hillary Clinton and John McCain won close victories in 2008). In the event that exit poll analysts declare the Granite State “too close to call,” what information should the savvy election observer seek as returns come in?
Just 4 of New Hampshire’s 10 counties—Hillsborough and Rockingham, on the Massachusetts border; Merrimack, which contains the state capital of Concord; and Strafford, home of the University of New Hampshire—will likely comprise 75% of the primary electorate. But aggregate, county-level results won’t be available until the wee hours of the morning, if not the day or two afterward. For in-the-moment analysis, psephologists have to zoom in on New Hampshire’s cities and towns in order to piece together a picture of the final results. The following is a guide to which New England hamlets will offer the best clues to the ultimate outcome on Tuesday, Jan. 23.”
@Nate_Cohn The live results by precinct, featuring a huge socioeconomic divide (Twitter)
“The best-laid plans of politicians and pollsters often go awry. Thursday night was supposed to be the sixth debate of the Republican presidential primary, and three candidates were originally lined up to participate: former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. But Christie dropped out of the race last week, and on Tuesday, Haley announced she would not participate in any more debates unless they were against former President Donald Trump or President Joe Biden. With only one candidate left to take the stage, the debate was scrubbed.
But we still have a poll to share! Before each of the first four GOP debates this cycle, 538 partnered with Ipsos to take the temperature of likely Republican primary voters heading into the event. We did the same with this one, and even though there will be no post-debate poll to compare them to, the results still shed some interesting light on the state of the GOP presidential contest as we head into New Hampshire’s primary next week.”
Nathaniel Rakich: The party has decided — on Donald Trump (538)
“Back in 2016, when former President Donald Trump first ran for president as a Republican, the party establishment resisted his campaign with all its might. Trump did not get his first endorsement from a sitting senator, representative or governor until Feb. 24, 2016 — after he had already won New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
Here in 2024, it's a very different story. Republican elected officials up and down the ballot, all across the country, aren't just not resisting Trump — they're actively throwing their support behind him. In fact, Trump has one of the highest levels of institutional support we've ever seen for a non-incumbent presidential candidate. Simply put, candidates with the quantity and quality of Trump's endorsements have never lost their party's nomination.”
Patrick Ruffini: The Surprising Voters Driving Trump to Victory (Time)
“After Republicans underperformed in the 2022 midterm elections, Donald Trump was a wounded animal. Trump-like candidates who parroted his claims about a stolen 2020 election went down to defeat. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis—Trump’s main would-be rival for the nomination—won his own re-election race a thumping 19 points. DeSantis wasn’t alone in thinking Trump was beatable. Half a dozen others prepared bids of their own. For a brief moment, the post-Trump Republican future seemed at hand.
That window of opportunity would close as quickly as it opened. And after Trump’s victory in the Iowa caucuses, commanding a majority of the vote against a divided opposition, it seems unlikely to reopen. This is all very different from the free-for-all expected when DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and others stepped into the fray against a weakened Trump.
What happened?”
Ezra Klein Interviews Kristen Soltis Anderson (The New York Times)
“So the Iowa caucus, as you’ve no doubt heard, was yesterday. I am speaking to you from a place of temporal ignorance. I don’t know what happened because I’m recording this a couple of days before.
But here is what almost certainly happened — Donald Trump won. He won by probably a lot, maybe less, maybe more than predicted but plenty. He is ahead in New Hampshire, ahead in South Carolina, ahead by a huge margin in the Republican primary, neck and neck in the general. And so rather than have a conversation about Iowa, I want to have a conversation about Republicans.
What is it that they want? What is it that still connects him so deeply to Donald Trump, that has made it so impossible for another candidate to fully break through?”
Patrick Ruffini: How Pennsylvania became the deciding state (The Intersection)
“Pennsylvania has gone from a reach for Republicans to one that is arguably the linchpin of any GOP presidential majority. It was the tipping point state in Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 and slightly to the left of 2020’s tipping point, Wisconsin. The results in both years were exceedingly close: Trump went from winning the Keystone State by 0.7 points, or 44,284 votes, to losing it by 1.2 points, or 82,166 votes, four years later.
I last analyzed Georgia, where population growth in the Atlanta suburbs–particularly among Black voters—was a decisive factor in a 5-point swing left, ending up in a Biden victory. Pennsylvania, by contrast, has been the picture of demographic stability: 68% of residents are born in-state and its large metros aren’t growing more than the state as a whole. Against this backdrop of stability— some might say decline—Pennsylvania has shifted right. In the past twenty years, the state has gone from voting 4 or 5 points to the left of the country as a whole to 3 points to right.”
Leon Sit: The Potential Political Impact of Shifting State Populations (Split Ticket)
“In Part 1 of this article, we reviewed population changes since both the 2020 Census and the Dobbs decision. Although shifts in the distribution of population can be interesting, it directly relates to political power through reapportionment. With any national population estimate released by the Census Bureau, observers often turn ahead to 2030 to try to tease out the results of the next reapportionment cycle.
It bears repeating that population estimates can deviate from reality and between one another. Extrapolating from the 2020 National and State Estimates for population, the last official estimate before the official reapportionment, did not precisely yield the actual population totals recorded in the 2020 Census, which had errors of its own. The official reapportionment showed New York, Minnesota, and Rhode Island each holding an extra seat at the expense of estimated gains for Texas, Florida, and Arizona — a difference of three seat transfers out of ten expected by the annual estimate. Keep this in mind for any review of population data even as 2030 approaches.”
👫 Demographics
Mohamad Moslimani, Christine Tamir, Abby Budiman, Luis Noe-Bustamante, and Lauren Mora: Facts About the U.S. Black Population (Pew Research Center)
“The Black population of the United States is growing. In 2022, there were an estimated 47.9 million people who self-identified as Black, making up 14.4% of the country’s population. This marks a 32% increase since 2000, when there were 36.2 million Black people living in the U.S.
Black Americans are diverse. This group consists of people with varied racial and ethnic identities and experiences. The nation’s Black population includes those who say their race is Black, either alone or in combination with other racial backgrounds. It also includes Hispanics or Latinos who say their race is Black.”
🔬 Academia
