One year of Trump 2.0. How’s his coalition doing?
Redistricting turns Dem, the four types of Trump voter, the partisanship of sports athletes, realignment in one chart, notes from the software apocalypse, walking is good for you
No. 388 | January 23, 2026
🎂 One year of Trump 2.0
At the one year mark of presidential terms, you tend to get polls. Lots of them. And you’ll definitely get a New York Times/Siena poll.
The headline here is this chart from Nate Cohn (who should be the one doing the write-up for the print edition -ed.) showing most of the groups of the groups that swung hard towards Trump reverting back to their 2020 support levels — or worse.
Has Trump lost his coalition? That depends on how you define what the coalition is.
In 2016 and 2020, Trump realigned a lot of voters — white and nonwhite — who were better aligned with a populist and traditionalist vision of America but who previously voted Democratic. Those gains appear to be durable. If you want to compare 2026 to 2018, let’s compare demographic support levels in that election to this one as measured by the NYT/Siena poll, as Ryan Girdusky does in his excellent National Populist Newsletter:
Democrats lead 18-29-year-olds by 27 points, down 22 poin…
