Poor college grads vs. rich non-grads
The turn against data centers, midterm forecasts come online, D+4 party ID, where people still live in their birth state, EV is lost on the Brits, where campaign money eats, the dream job
👫 Poor college grads vs. rich non-grads
Nate Silver’s chart showing voting behavior by education level and income struck a chord on X this week, as all debates about the relative status of highly educated people inevitably do on that platform. And the reason is that is tracks closely with our intuitions about the “downwardly mobile” — people who are highly educated but who don’t earn much money. Those voters are the most Democratic in the country.
And the most Republican? The working class voter who never went to college but is middle class or even wealthy.
This isn’t just a story about two distinctive groups of people. Obviously, education is correlated with income, and so higher-income people tend to be more Democratic now. But you can probably tell a story across the electorate of the relative winners economically in each cohort voting Republican and the relative losers voting Democratic. More data on that soon.
📊 Americans are turning against data centers
A new POLITICO/Public First poll finds that opposition to nearby data centers has risen sharply since January, with 41% now opposed to a facility within three miles of their home, up from 28% six months ago. The shift is especially pronounced among Democrats, though Republican support has softened as well.
Rising opposition to data centers is undeniable, especially as they become part of the conversation over rising utility costs. Attitudes towards data centers and AI continue to polarize on partisan lines, making it more likely that those data centers that do get built will go to redder, more rural territory — where regulatory barriers and the volume of opposition are both lower.
🇺🇲 More midterm forecasts coming online
The Decision Desk HQ forecast is a bit less bullish towards Democrats, giving them a 59% chance of winning the House, while Republicans hold a 60% chance of retaining the Senate — in line with other forecasts.
Kalshi’s new Midterms Hub uses prediction market odds to forecast the 2026 elections. Bettors also give Republicans a 57% edge to retain the Senate, but they’re more certain of a Democratic takeover in the House, at 83%.
📊 Pew pegs Party ID at D+4
Pew’s latest National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) shows a shift towards Democrats in party ID, with 47% of Americans identifying as or leaning Democratic and 43% Republican. A growing 10% of adults identify as true independents. That’s a shift from a tie in party ID in 2025.
This reflects in part a more Democratic midterm environment. At the same time, most of the shift since 2024 has been among leaners, with a D+1 gap in hard party ID this year versus an even split in 2024. The first year of presidential terms also tend to be good for the party in power, as voters rally around the winning party, with Republicans recording a high of 31 percent among hard partisans and Democrats a low of 28 percent. That’s the inverse of the situation in 2021, where Democrats held a 10 point advantage in party ID, 52-42, narrowing considerably to D+2 in 2022.
🗺️ Home sweet home
A very interesting chart was posted showing the states with the most residents born in state — but it appears to have been an AI hallucination. So I had Claude pull the real census numbers and make an accurate chart. The share ranges wildly from just 17% in Nevada to 74% in Louisiana.
Here’s the breakdown by county:
🇬🇧 Britons not familiar with the concept of expected value
73% of Britons would take an immediate £50,000 over a 50/50 chance to win £1 million, while just 21% would gamble for the bigger prize, which, by a factor of 10, is the higher-EV move.
🍽️ Where campaign money eats
The National Journal analyzed FEC records to see where campaign dollars are spent on dining in Washington—usually for fundraisers. Here are the top Democratic and Republican restaurants. Republicans like their steak, while Democrats love Italian food.
⚽ The dream job does exist
Coming off the World Cup, Arsenal is hiring a Research Engineer to build AI models that predict exactly what’ll happen in any given situation on the pitch.
