Redistricting redux

Plus: The GOP's economic advantage, age limits for politicians, the systemic decline in confidence, rural boys' advantage, and the Mets flop as explained by data

No. 287 | October 6, 2023

🗳️ Elections

Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich: Which states could get new congressional maps in 2024?  (ABC News)

“After the 2020 census, each state redrew its congressional district lines (if it had more than one seat) and its state legislative districts. 538 closely tracked how redistricting played out across the country ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. So everything is done and dusted, right?

Not so fast, my friend. More than a half-dozen states face the prospect of having to go through the redistricting process again, mostly due to federal and/or state litigation over racial or partisan gerrymandering concerns. Both Democrats and Republicans have the opportunity to flip seats in districts drawn more favorably than they were last cycle. For example, Democrats appear poised to pick up at least one seat in Alabama and could theoretically get more favorable maps in Louisiana and Georgia. Republicans, meanwhile, could benefit from more favorable 2024 maps in North Carolina and New Mexico.”

📊  Public Opinion

Benjy Sarlin: Gallup: GOP’s economic edge hits new heights (Semafor)

“​​A record-high percentage of Americans trust Republicans to manage the economy over Democrats, according to a new Gallup survey. Some 53% of respondents said the GOP were more likely to “do a better job of keeping the country prosperous,” versus 39% who favored Democrats.

Gallup has been polling the same question since 1951 and the 14-point edge is the widest for Republicans since 1991 and a slight bump from their 10-point advantage this time last year. Democrats led by one point in September 2020.”

John Gramlich: Most Americans favor maximum age limits for federal elected officials, Supreme Court justices (Pew Research Center)

“With the advanced age of some U.S. political leaders in the spotlight, 79% of Americans favor maximum age limits for elected officials in Washington, D.C. And 74% support such limits for Supreme Court justices, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

The survey finds majority support in both parties for maximum age limits for elected officials and Supreme Court justices. But Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are slightly more likely to support age limits for elected officials, while Democrats and Democratic leaners are considerably more likely to support them for Supreme Court justices.”

Gabriel Borelli: Americans differ over how important it is for political candidates they support to share their personal traits  (Pew Research Center)

“Overall, 66% of U.S. adults say it is extremely or very important that candidates share their views on political issues. And majorities across nearly all demographic and political groups view this as extremely or very important.

By contrast, no more than a quarter of Americans say it’s extremely or very important that candidates share each of the other five characteristics asked about in the survey: living in a community like theirs, sharing their religious values, coming from a similar economic background, sharing their racial or ethnic background, and sharing their gender. In fact, just 39% of Americans consider sharing any of these characteristics to be extremely or very important in candidates they support.”

🗺️ Data Visualization

@thomasjwood: The decline in systemic confidence in American government, by education 1956-2020. (X)

👫 Demographics

Nate Cohn: Power of Older Women? Extinct G.O.P. Moderates? It’s Time for the Mailbag. (New York Times)

“Why? American women, who tend to support Democrats, live almost six years longer on average than men. Women make up 55 percent of registered voters over age 65 — including 58 percent of those over age 80 — according to data from L2, a political data firm. In comparison, women are 52 percent of registered voters under 65.

I know all of this is a little morbid, but longevity strikes me as an underexplored dimension of electoral trends nowadays. We know higher life expectancy is correlated with socioeconomic status and tends to be higher in Democratic-leaning areas. Could this be a factor in why Democrats are performing better among older voters than usually thought? I think so.”

Mike Schneider: Census Bureau valiantly conducted 2020 census, but privacy method degraded quality, report says (Associated Press)

“The U.S. Census Bureau’s career staffers valiantly conducted the 2020 census under unprecedented challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, but new privacy protocols meant to protect the confidentiality of participants degraded the resulting data, according to a report released Tuesday.

Key innovations such as encouraging most participants to fill out the census questionnaire online and permitting the use of administrative records from government agencies including the IRS and the Social Security Administration when households hadn’t responded allowed the statistical agency to conduct the census '’amidst an unceasing array of challenges,’ an independent evaluation released by a panel of experts from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine said.”

🔬 Academia

@dylligent: “Why do kids born into poverty in rural areas climb the income ladder at higher rates than their urban peers? Answer: rural boys, who benefit from life in small places with more two-parent households.” (X)

🏀 Sports

Ira Boudway, David Ingold, and Mathieu Benhamou: Steve Cohen’s Mets Flop While Orioles Win With New Breed of Moneyball (Bloomberg)

“Yet there is a storybook, small-market franchise wildly outperforming expectations. It just happens to play on another bay about 2,500 miles east of Oakland. The Baltimore Orioles, who spent less in 2023 than every team except for the A’s, finished on top of the American League East with 101 wins. They did it with young talent — including standouts like shortstop Gunnar Henderson, catcher Adley Rutschman and starting pitcher Kyle Bradish — who are earning close to the league minimum of $720,000.

Since 1990, no team has spent less as a share of total league payroll and had a better record.”