RETVRN to 2020

The case for polls over forecasts, weird polling among seniors, the case of ActiVote, the Sanders-Trump nexus, post-debate polling shifts, Senate outlook

No. 329 | September 6th, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

Hopefully, I’m not stepping on this reporter’s toes, but in an interview this morning, I blurted out something clarifying: At this point, no election forecast is going to tell you more than a simple polling average in the battleground states. The fancy adjustments modelers make to account for “fundamentals” are doing more to swing the models than actual movement in the polls. And at this stage of the race, polls alone are what matters. To wit, this week’s averages — some of which show Harrismentum cooling off:  

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +3.0 (T+0.8)

• 538: Harris +3.1 (T+0.4)

• NYT Upshot: Harris +3.0 (H+0)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +3.8 (H+0)

• RCP: Harris +1.8 (H+0)

• Cook Political: Harris +1.6 (H+0.4)

• VoteHub: Harris +3.5 (H+0.9)

• RacetotheWH: Harris +3.4 (H-0.2)

• Split Ticket (NEW): Harris +3.1 (-)

Average of the Averages: Harris +2.9 (H+0)

The race is very close when accounting for the Electoral College, though not quite a tie if you assume Electoral Bias will be the…