Shor's autopsy
The youth gender gap is a marriage gap, moderates are more electable, white non-college men vs. white college women, Helene survivor focus group, the NYT's Trump approval tracker, March Madness
No. 354 | March 21th, 2025
🇺🇲 2024
David Shor is out with his Democratic autopsy. He gives the full presentation on the latest Ezra Klein Show.
#1. There were huge swings against the Democrats among nonwhite moderates and conservatives. Democrats lost 23% of the vote from 2016 to 2024 among Hispanic moderates. That’s a net 46 point swing in the two-party margin.
#2. It wasn’t just demographics. Voters were polarized by media consumption and civic engagement. People who followed the mainstream media closely and were very-high propensity voters swung towards Harris.
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