Super SOTU Week

The primary was over before it started, more voters say Trump's policies helped them, racial realignment, fake online survey respondents

No. 306 | March 8, 2024

🗳️ Elections

@PatrickRuffini: The Anti-Biden vs. the Anti-Trump Coalitions on Super Tuesday. Anti-Trump: Biden + Phillips + Haley + Christie + Uncommitted in the GOP Primary. Anti-Biden: Trump + other Republican candidates + all Biden challengers candidates except Phillips. (Twitter)

Kyle Kondik: What Stood Out from Super Tuesday (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

“While one can point out weaknesses for both Donald Trump and Joe Biden in their Super Tuesday performances, each turned in dominant showings.

Senate matchups were set in the megastates of California and Texas, with the former a snoozer and the latter a sleeper.

Only one House member lost a primary—so far—but a few others showed weaknesses.”

John Sides: Trump had the nomination sewn up before a single vote was cast (Good Authority)

“As Donald Trump was on the cusp of decisive Super Tuesday wins, a reporter wrote to me to ask:

‘whether Trump’s popularity with GOP primary voters was always such that none of these other candidates really had a chance, or whether, in retrospect, there are junctures between 2021 and now where you could make a convincing case that some particular shift in the circumstances of the race … might have yielded a different outcome, or at least a competitive race.’

Here’s my answer. No, there was no real chance for another candidate this year – precisely because the Republican Party was in the opposite place as when it nominated Trump the first time in 2016.”

Nate Cohn: Where Nikki Haley Won and What It Means (The New York Times)

“When the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the Republican primary was released in July, a quarter of Republican voters said they were not open to supporting Donald J. Trump.

These “not Trump” voters were not like other Republicans. They were relatively affluent, moderate and highly educated. They supported immigration reform and aid to Ukraine. Most of all, they had an unfavorable view of Mr. Trump. A majority of these primary voters wouldn’t even support him in a general election against President Biden.”

Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker: No Matter Race, Age or Gender, More Voters Say Trump’s Policies Helped Than Biden’s (The New York Times)

“Not since Theodore Roosevelt ran against William Howard Taft in 1912 have voters gotten the opportunity to weigh the records of two men who have done the job of president.

And despite holding intensely and similarly critical opinions both of President Biden and of his predecessor, Americans have much more positive views of Donald J. Trump’s policies than they do of Mr. Biden’s, according to New York Times/Siena College polls.

Overall, 40 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had helped them personally, compared with just 18 percent who say the same about Mr. Biden’s policies. Instead, 43 percent of voters said Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them, nearly double the share who said the same about Mr. Trump’s policies, the latest Times/Siena poll found.”

John Burn-Murdoch: American politics is undergoing a racial realignment (Financial Times) 🔒

“Last week, a New York Times poll showed President Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by just 56 points to 44 among non-white Americans, a group he won by almost 50 points when the two men last fought it out for the White House in 2020. As things stand, the Democrats are going backwards faster with voters of colour than any other demographic.

Such startling statistics often meet accusations of polling error, but this cannot be written off as a rogue result. Data from America’s gold-standard national election surveys show Democrats’ advantage among Black, Latino and Asian voters at its lowest since 1960. Figures from Gallup show the same steepening decline.”

📊 Public Opinion

Andrew Mercer, Courtney Kennedy, Scott Keeter: Online opt-in polls can produce misleading results, especially for young people and Hispanic adults (Pew Research Center)

“As polling takes center stage again this election year, understanding its strengths and weaknesses is critical. At Pew Research Center, we’ve looked hard at the advantages and limitations of our methods. We’ve also contributed to the survey profession’s understanding of data quality problems in polls that use online ‘opt-in’ sampling – an approach where people are not selected randomly but are instead recruited from a variety of online sources like banner ads or social media.

In this analysis, we’ll show how some recent findings from an opt-in poll may have unintentionally misled the public about the sensitive issue of Holocaust denial among young Americans.”

Anna Jackson: State of the Union 2024: Where Americans stand on the economy, immigration and other key issues (Pew Research Center)

“President Joe Biden will deliver his third State of the Union address on March 7. Ahead of the speech, Americans are focused on the health of the economy and the recent surge of migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as ongoing conflicts abroad.

Here’s a look at public opinion on key issues facing the country, drawn from recent Pew Research Center surveys of U.S. adults.”

@aedwardslevy: Dispatch from the department of “big, meaningful shifts in public opinion are almost by definition obvious.” (Twitter)