The 2026 models are here

Max gerrymandering, Americans like Big Tech, hard data on unlikely voters, common ground still exists, endorsements matter, the rise of involved fathers

No. 405 | June 19, 2026

🇺🇲 Split Ticket’s new House model

Split Ticket’s model for The Argument finds Democrats with a strong advantage in the House (86% chance of majority) but Republicans favored in the Senate (56%).

Rather than opining extensively on this model specifically, I’d recommend you have a listen to Split Ticket’s Lakshya Jain and VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini on the GD Politics podcast.