The Democrats' identity crisis

The 26 seats that will decide, signals flashing red, Texas isn’t done yet, AI brain fry, Americans are uniquely judgy, views of data centers, GeoGuessr for politics

No. 394 | March 13, 2026

🫏 The Democratic Party’s moderates are hiding in plain sight

A new Manhattan Institute survey of nearly 2,600 Democratic voters finds a coalition that’s far more moderate than its loudest voices suggest. The party breaks into three blocs: Moderates (47%), Progressive Liberals (37%), and a “Woke Fringe” (11%) that takes consistently maximalist positions. Just 22% want the party to move further left while 38% want it to move toward the center. On issue after issue — immigration, trans policy, DEI, crime — the median Democrat looks nothing like the activist left that dominates the discourse.

🗳️ The 26 seats that will decide the House

DecisionDeskHQ has mapped out the 26 Republican-held districts most likely to flip in November. Five are seats Harris carried in 2024, but the main battlegrounds will be the 11 seats that Trump carried by 5 points or less. (And yes, this is all still subject to further redistricting in states like Virginia and Florida.)