No. 394 | March 13, 2026
🫏 The Democratic Party’s moderates are hiding in plain sight
A new Manhattan Institute survey of nearly 2,600 Democratic voters finds a coalition that’s far more moderate than its loudest voices suggest. The party breaks into three blocs: Moderates (47%), Progressive Liberals (37%), and a “Woke Fringe” (11%) that takes consistently maximalist positions. Just 22% want the party to move further left while 38% want it to move toward the center. On issue after issue — immigration, trans policy, DEI, crime — the median Democrat looks nothing like the activist left that dominates the discourse.
🗳️ The 26 seats that will decide the House
DecisionDeskHQ has mapped out the 26 Republican-held districts most likely to flip in November. Five are seats Harris carried in 2024, but the main battlegrounds will be the 11 seats that Trump carried by 5 points or less. (And yes, this is all still subject to further redistricting in states like Virginia and Florida.)
