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The demographic swingometer returns
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The demographic swingometer returns

Drilling down on Electoral College bias, positive Rust Belt signs for Harris, (non-AI) Swifties for Trump, TV coverage leans Harris, yard signs work, RIP Latinx (again)

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Patrick Ruffini
Sep 20, 2024
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The demographic swingometer returns
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No. 331 | September 20th, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

The latest averages:

  • Silver Bulletin: Harris +2.8 (H+0.9)

  • 538: Harris +2.9 (H+0.1)

  • NYT Upshot: Harris +3 (H+0)

  • The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +3.6 (H+0.2)

  • RCP: Harris +1.9 (H+0.4)

  • Cook Political: Harris +2.2 (H+1.0)

  • VoteHub: Harris +2.9 (T+0.1)

  • RacetotheWH: Harris +3.7 (H+0.6)

Average of the Averages: Harris +2.9 (H+0.4)

As many others have said: this thing is close. Harris expands her lead with post-debate polls — and I spy some convergence in the averages. 

This is a pure tossup race if you assume an Electoral College bias of 3 points, similar to 2016 and 2020. If it’s less than that, it tilts Harris. 

DDHQ’s Scott Tranter has the pre- and post-debate forecast averages. 

Apropos of nothing: 

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