The demographic swingometer returns
Drilling down on Electoral College bias, positive Rust Belt signs for Harris, (non-AI) Swifties for Trump, TV coverage leans Harris, yard signs work, RIP Latinx (again)
No. 331 | September 20th, 2024
🇺🇲 2024
The latest averages:
Silver Bulletin: Harris +2.8 (H+0.9)
538: Harris +2.9 (H+0.1)
NYT Upshot: Harris +3 (H+0)
The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +3.6 (H+0.2)
RCP: Harris +1.9 (H+0.4)
Cook Political: Harris +2.2 (H+1.0)
VoteHub: Harris +2.9 (T+0.1)
RacetotheWH: Harris +3.7 (H+0.6)
Average of the Averages: Harris +2.9 (H+0.4)
As many others have said: this thing is close. Harris expands her lead with post-debate polls — and I spy some convergence in the averages.
This is a pure tossup race if you assume an Electoral College bias of 3 points, similar to 2016 and 2020. If it’s less than that, it tilts Harris.
DDHQ’s Scott Tranter has the pre- and post-debate forecast averages.
Apropos of nothing:
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