2022 election cycle among the most accurate in history for pollsters

Trump's support erodes in Iowa, Asian-Americans shift right

No. 257 | March 10th, 2023

🗳️ Elections

Nathaniel Rakich: The Polls Nailed The 2022 Election (FiveThirtyEight)

“Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history. Despite a loud chorus of naysayers claiming that the polls were either underestimating Democratic support or biased yet again against Republicans, the polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.

Of course, some pollsters were more accurate than others. And today, we’ve updated the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings to account for each pollster’s performance in the 2022 cycle. Our ratings are letter grades that we assign to each pollster based on historical accuracy a…