It was a few weeks ago that I wrote that polling over the summer hasn’t predicted the last few elections very well, overestimating Democrats. If we were to run an apples to apples comparison of data from that piece to polling right now, what would it show? Enter The Intersection’s 2026 Polling Index.
The polling index calculates the national political environment from individual race polls, broken out by House and Senate races. One advantage to this over regular generic ballot polling is that there tend to be many more individual House & Senate polls. The index now includes 450 polls: 165 House polls across 84 districts and 285 Senate polls across 26 states. This morning, it shows a 9.7-point swing towards Democrats from the 2024 presidential election results in the House and a 10.4-point swing in the Senate.
