The low-propensity voter theory of everything

Don't spend your time thinking about a MAGA crackup. Think about this instead.

We are in a media moment where the idea of a “MAGA crackup” is riding high. This was the focus of my podcast with Galen Druke this week, and it figures heavily in my conversation with Ben Domenech in The New York Times out today. Discontent over the Epstein files and the rise of fringe far-right media figures seems to portend rising fractiousness on the right.

I consider this explanation for Trump’s political troubles highly overrated, as I note in the Times chat:

You can count me as a card-carrying member of the “nothing ever happens” school of Trump polling. If MAGA were really cracking up, you’d see it in the polls. In our polling, Trump has been above or near a 95 percent approval rating among [MAGA Republicans] since he took office in January. The media and influencer discourse can be pretty disconnected from the voter reality.

Where Trump is losing ground — which we saw in the recent election results — is among the low-propensity independents who surged toward him in 2024.

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