The Intersection

The Intersection

The midterm mirage

Why Democratic victories in 2026 could bury the lessons of 2024

Patrick Ruffini's avatar
Patrick Ruffini
Aug 13, 2025
∙ Paid
38
5
6
Share

When a party loses a presidential election, this prompts a period of introspection about what went wrong and forces the party to confront weaknesses swept under the rug during the campaign.

For the Democrats, this unfolded like clockwork following their 2024 loss.

But a few months later, this newfound openness to doing things differently has faded in the face of all-out opposition to Trump 2.0. In the U.S., midterm elections are a unique mechanism that squash heterodoxy and lock parties into sticking with their existing positions. The parties are thrown immediately back into campaign mode a few months after the election. That means the out-party quickly needs to maximize fundraising and enthusiasm from their base, which is usually at its angriest in the first few months of the opposing Administration’s term.

By favoring the out-party, midterm elections preempt the gnarly questions raised by the party’s last election defeat. And this false optimism carries through to the next president…

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to The Intersection to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Patrick Ruffini
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture