When a party loses a presidential election, this prompts a period of introspection about what went wrong and forces the party to confront weaknesses swept under the rug during the campaign.
For the Democrats, this unfolded like clockwork following their 2024 loss.
But a few months later, this newfound openness to doing things differently has faded in the face of all-out opposition to Trump 2.0. In the U.S., midterm elections are a unique mechanism that squash heterodoxy and lock parties into sticking with their existing positions. The parties are thrown immediately back into campaign mode a few months after the election. That means the out-party quickly needs to maximize fundraising and enthusiasm from their base, which is usually at its angriest in the first few months of the opposing Administration’s term.
By favoring the out-party, midterm elections preempt the gnarly questions raised by the party’s last election defeat. And this false optimism carries through to the next president…
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