The narrow Dem playing field
Living in the past, it’s the phones, why you should worry less, the podcast primary, Republican boy moms, who you spend time with visualized
No. 385 | December 19th, 2025
This will be the last regular edition of The Intersection in 2025. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Holidays — and see you in 2026!
🇺🇲 Dems have fewer offensive opportunities than in 2018
One key difference between 2026 and the last Trump midterm in 2018 is that Democrats have fewer offensive opportunities to really run up the score in the House.
The reasons are a combination of mid-decade redistricting, the 2021-22 redistricting cycle where both sides drew themselves into safer seats, and the 2024 election where House Democrats ran ahead of Kamala Harris. While many Republicans were sitting in Clinton seats following the 2016 election, such low-hanging fruit is practically nonexistent this year.
There’s a Door A and Door B here. Door A is what we’ll call the “2022 scenario” in which Democrats poured massive resources into defending prime GOP pickup targets and largely succeeded in doing so. Republicans could do the same from a defensive position this …
