The narrow Dem playing field

Living in the past, it’s the phones, why you should worry less, the podcast primary, Republican boy moms, who you spend time with visualized

No. 385 | December 19th, 2025

This will be the last regular edition of The Intersection in 2025. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Holidays — and see you in 2026!

🇺🇲 Dems have fewer offensive opportunities than in 2018

One key difference between 2026 and the last Trump midterm in 2018 is that Democrats have fewer offensive opportunities to really run up the score in the House.

The reasons are a combination of mid-decade redistricting, the 2021-22 redistricting cycle where both sides drew themselves into safer seats, and the 2024 election where House Democrats ran ahead of Kamala Harris. While many Republicans were sitting in Clinton seats following the 2016 election, such low-hanging fruit is practically nonexistent this year.

There’s a Door A and Door B here. Door A is what we’ll call the “2022 scenario” in which Democrats poured massive resources into defending prime GOP pickup targets and largely succeeded in doing so. Republicans could do the same from a defensive position this year. Assuming they lose the House, this would put them in a better spot for retaking the House in 2028.

Door B is where Democrats are able to pour a massive low-dollar fundraising advantage into swamping the GOP in the few low-hanging fruit seats and then trying to expand the map. But really expanding the map is easier said than done, requiring more on the candidate front than on the fundraising front. That means more Manchins and Jared Goldens, not more money.

Politico has a nice data viz showing this.

📊 Has something gone seriously wrong when people would rather live in the past than the future?

45% of US adults would prefer to live in the past, and only 14% would like to live in the future — with only 5% preferring the next 50 years that most will live to see whether they like it or not.

📵 Political polarization: It’s the phones.

A new study correlates the advent of social media and invention of smartphones in 2008 with an immediate rise in polarization.

Vibes-wise, this kind of feels right. But others have pointed out that other things happened in 2008 that could have accelerated polarization.

Rising polarization was already in the works before 2008, with partisan gaps in economic perception materializing at the start of George W. Bush’s presidency. Partisan gaps in job presidential job approval had already been rising, but were temporarily paused by 9/11. Today, job approval is a much less interesting number. It’s pretty much etched in stone from the start of a president’s term until the end.

😟 You should worry 91.4% less

A new study shows that 91.4% of worries experienced by those with Generalized Anxiety Disorder will never come true.

🫏 The podcast primary

The 21 leading contenders for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination have collectively given 430 podcast interviews in 2025. Meidas Touch and Brian Tyler Cohen are the most popular shows.

👫 Boy moms lean right, girl moms lean left

Via David Shor, boy moms are 3% more Republican, while girl moms are 4% more Democratic.

Child gender has no impact whatsoever on the fathers.

⌛ Who you spend time with, visualized

Who you spend time with on any given day varies a lot by gender and age. The older you get, the more you’re just spending time with a spouse or your children, not with friends. Flowing Data visualizes American Time Use Survey data by demographic to uncover the hidden differences.