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The New York Times polls show that the multiracial populist GOP has arrived
(And the book about this hits bookstores in two days.)
Not only are these a brutal set of topline numbers for the president, but they show the Democratic coalition completely falling apart. Hispanic voters in the battlegrounds are within single digits. Trump gets 22 percent of the Black vote.
The driving force? The economy.
From the writeup: “Another ominous sign for Democrats is that voters across all income levels felt that Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them personally, while they credited Mr. Trump’s policies for helping them. The results were mirror opposites: Voters gave Mr. Trump a 17-point advantage for having helped them and Mr. Biden a 18-point disadvantage for having hurt them.”
Voters trust Trump 59 to 37 percent over Biden on the economy.
Twice as many voters say economic issues rather than social issues will decide their vote, and Trump leads those voters 60 to 32 percent.
If this is not a bright red warning sign for Democrats that Republicans have swiped a critical mass of nonwhite working class voters from under their feet, I’m not sure what would be.
These are exactly the trends I forecasted in Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP — which lands in bookstores this Tuesday — Election Day.
Politico Magazine ran an excerpt of the book yesterday. About more recent developments, I wrote:
A historic realignment of working-class voters helped Trump defy the odds and win in 2016, and brought him to within a hair of reelection in 2020. The polls show a tied race or even a narrow Trump advantage with one year to go until the 2024 election, an advantage that extends to Trump’s fellow Republican contenders. And digging deeper into the data, we can see why: Joe Biden is faltering among the core Democratic groups that were once the mainstay of “the party of the people” —working-class voters of color. Numerous polls have shown Trump reaching nearly 20 percent of the Black vote and drawing to within 10 points of Biden among Hispanic voters. Even if these shifts were to only partly materialize in November 2024, they would signal a lasting realignment poised to upend the party system we’ve known since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal.
We will see if the dramatic shifts forecast by this poll and other actually materialize. Some of the numbers, particularly on the youth vote, seem incredible. But I will note that the New York Times/Siena polling operation run by Nate Cohn is no Trafalgar or Rasmussen. It was the most accurate pollster in the country in 2022, rated A+ by FiveThirtyEight.
As I write in Party of the People, even a smaller shift among nonwhite voters would be enough to badly undermine the Democrats’ electoral calculus. Moving from 10 to 15 percent of the Black vote would shift the national popular vote margin by more than a percentage point, easily the difference in most swing states. And that’s before we begin to consider Hispanic voters, who are very elastic in their voting preferences and trending even more strongly to the right than in 2020.
Needless to say, these are interesting times if you closely follow voter demography. I’m eager to continue this discussion with the launch of Party of the People. If you pre-order today, you’ll receive the book on Tuesday.