The Pew report and the primary

Confirming Trump's more diverse coalition, Mamdani romps in the "Commie Corridor," luxury beliefs, inclusive populism, active vs. passive news consumption, Blue Substack, Dem heterodoxy

No. 365 | June 27th, 2025

🇺🇲 2024

The Pew validated voter study of the 2024 election, the last of the major accounts of how groups voted, is out.

Key topline takeaways:

• Trump got within 3 points among Hispanics, a narrower margin than any of the exit polls or post-election reports.

• He received 15 percent of the Black vote, in line with other estimates.

• Asian American voters swung by more than 20 points, from 70-30 Democratic in 2020 to 57-40 in 2024.

• Nonvoters favored Trump, and if everyone had voted, his margin would have expanded to 3 points.

One of their charts underscores just how much more diverse the Republican coalition has gotten under Trump:

Sabato’s Crystal Ball further analyzes the Pew report and compares its findings to other 2024 election post-mortems, including the Catalist and Edison reports.