No. 365 | June 27th, 2025
🇺🇲 2024
The Pew validated voter study of the 2024 election, the last of the major accounts of how groups voted, is out.
Key topline takeaways:
Trump got within 3 points among Hispanics, a narrower margin than any of the exit polls or post-election reports.
He received 15 percent of the Black vote, in line with other estimates.
Asian American voters swung by more than 20 points, from 70-30 Democratic in 2020 to 57-40 in 2024.
Nonvoters favored Trump, and if everyone had voted, his margin would have expanded to 3 points.
One of their charts underscores just how much more diverse the Republican coalition has gotten under Trump:
Sabato’s Crystal Ball further analyzes the Pew report and compares its findings to other 2024 election post-mortems, including the Catalist and Edison reports.
