The return of racial realigment

White college grads shift left, religious voter groups to watch, working class politics, appreciating Pew's crosstabs, Harris's TV advantage narrows, my take on recalled vote weighting

No. 334 | October 11th, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

A slight tightening in the averages for the week. 

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +3.0 (T+0.4)

• 538: Harris +2.4 (T+0.1)

• NYT Upshot: Harris +3.0 (H+1)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +2.9 (T+0.5)

• RCP: Harris +1.8 (T+0.4)

• Cook Political: Harris +2.2 (T+0.3)

• VoteHub: Harris +3.3 (T+0.1)

• RacetotheWH: Harris +3.0 (T+0.5)

Average of the Averages: Harris +2.7 (T+0.2)

After a pause following Joe Biden’s exit from the race, racial realignment discourse is back.

A reminder from the FT that Realignment is a global trend: ethnic voters in the U.S. and U.K. are shifting away from the mainstream left. 

White Democrats used to resemble Black and Latino voters in their policy preferences. Now they’re much further to the left.