The truth about campaign digital spending

Team Trump's flagging TV ad impressions, the value of outliers, the right way to look at early voting, the switch to "likely voters", male influencers ranked

No. 332 | September 27th, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

The averages:

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +3.0 (H+0.2)

• 538: Harris +2.7 (H-0.2)

• NYT Upshot: Harris +3 (NC)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +4.0 (H+0.4)

• RCP: Harris +2.0 (H+0.1)

• Cook Political: Harris +2.4 (H+0.2)

• VoteHub: Harris +2.7 (H-0.2)

• RacetotheWH: Harris +3.5 (H-0.2)

Average of the Averages: Harris +2.9 (H+0.1)

The fundraising disparity is becoming increasingly apparent on the airwaves, as more Harris ads are airing than Trump ads. Harris hasn’t increased her paid TV presence; Trump cut his by around a third starting on Labor Day—so, pre-debate. 

One silver lining for the Trump campaign is that they’re airing more spots relative to their spending than the Harris campaign — $471 per airing compared to $737 for Harris/Walz. And of course, the main SuperPACs are paying far more — thanks to candidates getting the lowest unit rate. Pro-Harris FF PAC is paying $1,520 per spot while pro-Trump MAGA, Inc. is paying $1,668.