The vanishing battleground

From 239-196 to 222-113, Reform UK's conquest, the phones killing the future, collapsing reading scores, occupational bubbles, DDHQ precinct maps, auto-judgmental maps, World Cup around the corner

No. 402 | May 22, 2026

🗳️ Here’s just how much gerrymandering has wiped out competitive seats

I keep making the point that gerrymandering isn’t just about winning seats for your party. It’s also about taking competitive seats off the board. Now with South Carolina wrapping up its redraw, we’ll soon be able to close the books on the 2026 redistricting wars and know where the dust has settled.

Redistricting alone won’t be enough to protect the Republican House majority, but a new interactive visual from The Intersection shows exactly how valuable the redistricting campaign has been in narrowing the playing field. The tipping point seat in the House (based on 2024 presidential vote) moved from Trump +3.1 AZ-1 to Trump +5.1 PA-10. If the election were being held today, Republicans would be favored to lose either one. But Democrats doing 4 points better nationally than in the tipping point seat would yield them a meager five extra seats. Under this scenario, where a Democratic wave crests in…