The verdict and the data

What voters remember most about Trump's presidency, 40 years of Cook ratings, declinism in a single chart, elite university encampments, concert cash flows

No. 317 | May 31, 2024

⚖️ 2024: The Trials 

Trump’s guilty verdict only dropped his chances of winning by 2%. 

But a lot will depend on how low-information voters respond, writes Nate Silver: 

But the fact that the public has been relatively inattentive to the trial does not necessarily strike me as good news for Trump. Traders at prediction markets might have anticipated this outcome — but polls show that most voters did not. It represents a material change in their state of knowledge about the election.

And, as Nate Cohn notes, data before the conviction suggested Trump’s downside from a guilty verdict would be come most from the same previously Democratic constituencies trending away from Biden:

The Times/Siena and Marquette Law polls both suggest that these young and nonwhite voters might be especially prone to revert to their traditional partisan leanings in the event of a conviction, with Mr. Biden getting back to a far more typical lead among young and nonwhite voters. In fact, almos…