The verdict and the data

What voters remember most about Trump's presidency, 40 years of Cook ratings, declinism in a single chart, elite university encampments, concert cash flows

No. 317 | May 31, 2024

⚖️ 2024: The Trials 

Trump’s guilty verdict only dropped his chances of winning by 2%. 

But a lot will depend on how low-information voters respond, writes Nate Silver: 

But the fact that the public has been relatively inattentive to the trial does not necessarily strike me as good news for Trump. Traders at prediction markets might have anticipated this outcome — but polls show that most voters did not. It represents a material change in their state of knowledge about the election.

And, as Nate Cohn notes, data before the conviction suggested Trump’s downside from a guilty verdict would be come most from the same previously Democratic constituencies trending away from Biden:

The Times/Siena and Marquette Law polls both suggest that these young and nonwhite voters might be especially prone to revert to their traditional partisan leanings in the event of a conviction, with Mr. Biden getting back to a far more typical lead among young and nonwhite voters. In fact, almost all of the unusual demographic patterns among young, nonwhite and irregular voters disappear when voters are asked how they would vote if Mr. Trump were convicted.

In the Times/Siena poll, 21 percent of Mr. Trump’s young supporters said they’d back Mr. Biden if there were a conviction. In comparison, only 2 percent of 65-and-older Trump supporters said the same. Similarly, 27 percent of Black voters who backed Mr. Trump flipped to Mr. Biden, compared with just 5 percent of white respondents.

📊 2024: The Polls

Voters are far more likely to remember Trump’s general personal conduct as president more than they are specific events like January 6th and Covid. 

📮 Elections

Cook Political calibrates 40 years of race ratings. When a race is ranked as leaning one way or the other, the favored party tends wins more than 90% of the time. 

🗣️ Public Opinion

Declinism in a single chart: People tend to think things are the worst they’ve ever been today, including a large share who say this of life expectancy and scientific discovery (!). 

From the same survey: When did people think things were best? Typically in their adolescent years.

Is a college degree worth the financial stress in today's economy?

The parties’ class identities have not necessarily flipped, but people are much less likely to see the parties polarized on class lines as they were three decades ago.

📈 Charts

Encampments happened pretty much exclusively at elite universities. 

🗺️ Data Visualization

Buying a home is pretty much the hardest it’s ever been. 

Who else is making money off your Eras Tour tickets (and concessions and merch)? 

👫 Demographics

Nate Silver has a new calculation for the most urban states.