Voters: cut government, just not government programs
Voters: cut government, just not government programs
Big cities bounce back, build your own college rankings, using AI to become superhuman, what we haven't learned about the GOP primary so far, this season's MLB forecast
No. 260 | March 31st, 2023
📊 Polling & Public Attitudes
Patrick Ruffini: Why this extremely viral poll result might not be real (The Intersection)
“This chart from the March Wall Street Journal/NORC poll was destined to go viral. It shows that the values we think of as defining America—patriotism, having children, religion, community, involvement—are falling off a cliff. And the only thing that people now value more? Money. The decline in old-fashioned values has accelerated over the last few years. In 2019, 61 percent said patriotism was very important to them. Today, that number is 38 percent. Also, just four years ago, 62 percent said the same of community involvement. Now, that number is less than half that: 27 percent.
These findings fit into a declinist narrative we are already predisposed to believe. And that’s what makes this chart so powerful and compelling. It’s exceptionally easy to draw sweeping conclusions from it. “
Monica Potts, Mary Radcliffe: Politicians Want Universal School Vouchers. But What About The Public? (FiveThirtyEight)
“Earlier this week, Florida became the fourth state this year to enact a bill that would allow parents to receive taxpayer-funded vouchers to send their children to private schools, joining Iowa, Utah and Arkansas. At least 18 other states have introduced similar bills this term, meaning that almost half of the country’s state legislatures have passed or are considering passing legislature that could reshape the funding of public education by creating voucher programs open to almost any family, rather than reserving funding for students in failing schools or from low-income families.
Legislators are moving forward with these bills as if they’re universally popular, often acting as though they have a mandate to pass them. But public opinion doesn’t suggest there’s a mandate — it suggests that support for such bills is complicated, varying by state, program design and how the polling questions are asked. Still, these bills are being considered at the same time that support for public schools is declining, especially among Republicans, which could be helping them gain momentum across the country.”
Christine Huang: Americans are increasingly worried about China-Taiwan tensions (Pew Research Center)
“A growing share of Americans are concerned about tensions between China and Taiwan, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted March 20-26, 2023. Nearly half of U.S. adults (47%) say tensions between mainland China and Taiwan are a very serious problem for the United States, up 4 percentage points since October 2022 and 19 points since February 2021.
The survey comes as Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visits the U.S., with unofficial stops planned in New York and in California, where she is scheduled to meet with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry has said it ‘strongly opposes’ all forms of U.S. contact with Taiwan officials.
Among the U.S. public, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are somewhat more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to be very concerned about tensions between China and Taiwan (52% vs. 45%). Conservative Republicans are more likely than moderate or liberal Republicans (61% vs. 38%) to see these tensions as a very serious problem.”
Charles Lane: Lower fertility rates are the new cultural norm (The New York Times)
“Washington is buzzing over a Wall Street Journal/NORC poll suggesting that Americans are now much less likely than 25 years ago to describe norms such as tolerance and patriotism as ‘very important’ to them. Axios said the data connote national ‘rot,’ while Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini argued that methodological quirks overstate the actual shifts.
On one point, though, the poll seems realistic. The percentage who say that having children is very important to them has dropped from 43 percent to 30 percent since 2019. This fits with data showing that, since 2007, the total fertility rate in the United States has fallen from 2.1 lifetime births per woman, the ‘replacement rate’ necessary to sustain population levels, to just 1.64 in 2020.
The U.S. economy is losing an edge that robust population dynamics gave it relative to low-birth-rate peer nations in Japan and Western Europe; this country, too, faces chronic labor-supply constraints as well as an even less favorable “dependency ratio” between workers and retirees than it already expected.”
Juliana Menasce Horowitz, Kim Parker: How Americans View Their Jobs (Pew Research Center)
“In the wake of the Great Resignation and amid reports of ‘quiet quitting,’ only about half of U.S. workers say they are extremely or very satisfied with their job overall, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. Even smaller shares express high levels of satisfaction with their opportunities for training and skills development, how much they are paid and their opportunities for promotion.
At the same time, most workers say they are extremely or very satisfied with their relationship with their co-workers (67%) and with their manager or supervisor (62%). About seven-in-ten or more say they’re treated with respect (78%) and can be themselves at work (72%) all or most of the time, and majorities also say they have at least one close friend at work (65%) and that they feel their contributions at work are valued a great deal or a fair amount (62%).”
👫 Demographics
Growth in the Nation’s Largest Counties Rebounds in 2022 (U.S. Census Bureau)
“After some of the nation's most populous counties experienced significant outmigration and population declines in 2021, overall patterns of population growth and decline are moving towards pre-pandemic rates for the nation’s 3,144 counties according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 estimates of population and components of change released today. All 10 of the top fastest-growing counties were in the South or West.
‘The migration and growth patterns for counties edged closer to pre-pandemic levels this year,’ said Dr. Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for estimates and projections in the Census Bureau’s population division. ‘Some urban counties, such as Dallas and San Francisco, saw domestic outmigration at a slower pace between 2021 and 2022, compared to the prior year. Meanwhile, many counties with large universities saw their populations fully rebound this year as students returned.’”
Philip Bump: Red America is growing because blue America is shrinking (The Washington Post)
“Rural America is dying faster than it is producing new children. Census Bureau data released Thursday shows that, between 2021 and 2022, nearly 645,000 residents of rural counties died while only 494,000 were born.
The good news is that the population in those counties grew anyway — thanks to more than 163,000 new residents, almost certainly from more-populous parts of the country.
Or, put slightly differently: Red America is growing because blue America is shrinking.”
Justin Nortey, Michael Rotolo: How the Pandemic Has Affected Attendance at U.S. Religious Services (Pew Research Center)
“Since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic three years ago, observers of religious life in America have wondered whether – and how – the upheaval would impact religious worship. Would the temporary shuttering of churches and other houses of worship accelerate the longer-term decline in attendance, especially if many people who stopped attending religious services in person during the pandemic never go back? Or could the widespread introduction of virtual services extend congregations’ geographic reach, increase their appeal to young people and help them attract new audiences?
There are some indications that in-person engagement in religious services has declined slightly since 2019, before the COVID-19 outbreak. The share of all U.S. adults who say they typically attend religious services at least once a month is down modestly but measurably (by 3 percentage points, from 33% to 30%) over that span, and one-in-five Americans say they now attend in person less often than they did before the pandemic.
At the same time, the share of U.S. adults who take part in religious services in some way (in person, virtually or both) in a given month has remained remarkably steady since the early days of the pandemic – even though how they participate has shifted dramatically.”
📰 Data Journalism
Quoctrung Bui and Jessia Ma: Build Your Own College Rankings (The New York Times)
“What’s the best way to choose the right college? And is there one “right” college for anyone? Most published rankings are one-size-fits-all, based on formulas that don’t factor in your priorities, goals and needs.
So we’ve created a tool to help find the best American colleges — for you. Do you care most about making money after graduating? Low college costs? Diversity? Academics or athletics? Staying close to home? Use our tool’s sliders and filters to tell us what you value, and we’ll give you college rankings that fit.”
🤖 Artificial Intelligence
Ethan Mollick: Superhuman: What can AI do in 30 minutes? (One Useful Thing | Substack)
“The thing that we have to come to grips with in a world of ubiquitous, powerful AI tools is how much it can do for us. The multiplier on human effort is unprecedented, and potentially disruptive. But this fact can often feel abstract.
So I decided to run an experiment. I gave myself 30 minutes, and tried to accomplish as much as I could during that time on a single business project. At the end of 30 minutes I would stop. The project: to market the launch a new educational game. AI would do all the work, I would just offer directions.
And what it accomplished was superhuman. I will go through the details in a moment, but, in 30 minutes it: did market research, created a positioning document, wrote an email campaign, created a website, created a logo and “hero shot” graphic, made a social media campaign for multiple platforms, and scripted and created a video. In 30 minutes.”
Ethan Mollick: How to use AI to do practical stuff: A new guide (One Useful Thing)
“We live in an era of practical AI, but many people haven’t yet experienced it, or, if they have, they might have wondered what the big deal is. Thus, this guide. It is a modified version of one I put out for my students earlier in the year, but a lot has changed. It is an overview of ways to get AI to do practical things.
Large Language Models like ChatGPT are extremely powerful, but are built in a way that encourages people to use them in the wrong way. When I talk to people who tried ChatGPT but didn’t find it useful, I tend to hear a similar story.”
🐘 The GOP
Ruy Teixeira: Republicans Really Are the Party of the Working Class (The Liberal Patriot)
“Republicans are, in a strict quantitative sense, the party of the American working class. That is, they currently get more working-class (noncollege) votes than the Democrats. That was true in 2022 when Republicans carried the nationwide working-class House vote by 13 points. That was true in 2020, when Trump carried the nationwide working-class presidential vote by 4 points over Biden. Moreover, modeled estimates by the States of Change project indicate that Trump carried the working-class vote in 35 out of 50 states, including in critical states for the Democrats like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as in states that are slipping away from the party like Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
Another way of looking at this trend is by Congressional district. Currently Democrats dominate the more affluent districts while Republicans are cleaning up in the poorer districts. The same pattern of Republican domination of the working-class vote appears to be developing as we move toward 2024.”
Nate Cohn: What We Haven’t Learned From the First Chapter of the Republican Primary (The New York Times 🔒)
“The first chapter of the Republican race seems to be heading toward a dramatic end.
The plot of the last several months — Donald J. Trump’s onslaught against Ron DeSantis — has culminated with a meaningful shift in the polls. Now, the political conversation is starting to move to the next story line: a possible indictment of Mr. Trump.
Before we turn the page, it’s worth pausing to reflect on where the race stands. Yes, there’s been a big shift in ‘momentum’ in favor of Mr. Trump over the last few weeks,
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