Was there a bounce?

Polls may be missing rural whites again, Electoral College bias returns, Trump playing catch-up on air, massive Gen Z gender gap, polling error over time, an Iowa-Missouri paradox

No. 328 | August 30th, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

Harris has dropped below 50% in the Silver Bulletin forecast (thanks to their convention bounce adjustment) and is a slight underdog on Polymarket, but she made further gains in the polls last week following the Democratic National Convention, with an average Harris lead of 2.9 points and an 0.5 gain week-over-week.

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +3.8 (H+1.3)

• 538: Harris +3.5 (H-0.1)

• NYT Upshot: Harris +3 (H+1)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +3.8 (H+0.6)

• RCP: Harris +1.8 (H+0.3)

• Cook Political: Harris +1.2 (H+0.2)

• VoteHub: Harris +2.6 (H+0.3)

• RacetotheWH: Harris +3.6 (H+0.4)

Average of the Averages: Harris +2.9 (H+0.5)

The convention bounce for both parties this year has been pretty minimal and in steady decline from its heyday in the 1980s and ‘90s.

Coldspark’s Mark Harris finds evidence of rural white working class voters not responding to surveys, and their quotas being filled in by their more Democratic counterparts in cities and suburbs. Needless to say, this could have …