What the heck just happened?
An iron law of off-year turnout, the Jersey Hispanic vote, low-propensity voters are obsessed with affordability, Dems win economy voters 2-to-1, NYC divided, how AI is ruining the job market
No. 381 | November 7th, 2025
🇺🇲 Turnout and persuasion in Tuesday’s Democratic wins
Republicans got walloped in Tuesday’s off-year elections. There are two stories here: a turnout story and a persuasion story.
In Virginia, red counties dropped off more compared to their turnout in 2024, while blue counties dropped off less. In 2021, it was exactly the opposite. In fact, the trendlines from both years look like mirror images of the other. This complicates the story that it’s just Republicans that have problems turning out their low-propensity voters. Democrats had the exact same problem in 2021. In fact, this pattern of turnout hurting the party in the White House is pretty systematic across cycles, making it almost an iron law.
Most of the polls missed this turnout shift, and as a result, candidates, the media, and other observers were blind as to what election they were running in. In 2024, the equivalent might have been thinking you were running in a race in Pennsylvania, only to fi…
