What to watch for on Election Night
Our final polls, bellwether counties, when states will report, geographic sorting, weighting choices drive poll results, the recalled vote debate, the survey change that tanked consumer confidence
No. 337 | November 1st, 2024
🇺🇲 2024
55,131,009 Americans have voted, per TargetSmart.
It’s getting tighter out there. Harris is now down to a 1.1 point lead in the national polls.
Silver Bulletin: Harris +1.1 (T+0.2)
538: Harris +1.4 (T+0.3)
NYT Upshot: Even (T+1)
The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +0.8 (T+0.2)
RCP: Trump +0.5 (T+0.7)
Cook Political: Harris +1.2 (T+0.3)
VoteHub: Harris +1.7 (T+0.4)
RacetotheWH: Harris +1.7 (T+0.3)
Average of the Averages: Harris +1.1 (T+0.3)
Our final national poll has Harris up 2 in both the full ballot and head-to-head. But in the Rust Belt states, our polls released yesterday have Trump opening up a 5-point lead on the full ballot in Pennsylvania with ties in Michigan and Wisconsin.
I wrote earlier this fall to beware of a situation where the Rust Belt was polling too close to the national polling average. In 2016 and 2020, the Rust Belt polled within one point in either direction of the national polls.
Both years, they ended up 2.8 points to the right of the national environment when all the votes were counted.
With just 4 days to go, it’s happening again, with the Rust Belt polling just 0.5 points to the right of the national polls. That means that if Harris polling 1 point ahead nationally, Trump should be polling ahead by 2 points in the Rust Belt states, OR if Harris is slightly ahead in the Rust Belt, she should be up by 3 nationally. Of course, the Rust Belt could have trended left in the last four years, but this marker of the 2016-20 polling errors making an appearance should be noteworthy.
Here’s a breakdown of how 2016 and 2020 polling error, and the 2024 polls in the battleground states:
Dave Wasserman has 13 counties to watch on Election Night.
Baldwin County, Georgia: polls close at 7pm EST.
Fayette County, Georgia: polls close at 7pm EST.
Cabarrus County, North Carolina: polls close at 7:30pm EST.
Nash County, North Carolina: polls close at 7:30pm EST.
Muskegon County, Michigan: Polls close at 8pm EST.
Saginaw County, Michigan: Polls close at 8pm EST.
Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8pm EST.
Cumberland County, Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8pm EST.
Northampton County, Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8pm
Sauk County, Wisconsin: Polls close at 9pm EST.
Ozaukee County, Wisconsin: Polls close at 9pm EST.
Maricopa County, Arizona: Polls close at 9pm EST.
Washoe County, Nevada: Polls close at 10pm EST.
Chris Stirewalt at AEI and The Dispatch also has his counties to watch on Election night.
Washoe County, Nevada
Ozaukee County, Wisconsin
Kent County, Michigan
Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania
Nash County, North Carolina
Forsyth County, Georgia
And I gave mine in my New York Times piece on battleground micro-communities:
Nash County, North Carolina
Wilson County, North Carolina
Northampton County, Pennsylvania
Erie County, Pennsylvania
Brown County, Wisconsin
Outagamie County, Wisconsin
Winnebago County, Wisconsin
Maricopa County, Arizona
And the bellwether champion is: Nash County, North Carolina, which appears on all three lists. It’s the home of Nashville in Eastern North Carolina, which brings together a working class white and Black electorate. Northampton County, Pennsylvania, Ozaukee County, Wisconsin, Maricopa County, Arizona, and Washoe County, Nevada make two out of three lists.
And with all of these, remember: it’s not who wins the county that matters most, but the margin shift from 2020.
This is one you’ll want to have bookmarked: 538’s roundup of when we should know the results in each state.
Bravo to the New York Times for putting together this analysis that’s been on my to-do list for a while, showing where Republicans and Democrats have moved to over the last few years. It’s direct, on-the-ground proof that we are sorting ourselves geographically: Republicans from politically split neighborhoods move to more Republican areas, and Democrats move to more Democratic areas.
A great piece on the demographics of Wisconsin, echoing a point I’ve made before: Wisconsin’s rurals — especially in the southwest, are much more Democratic than would be predicted by demographics alone.
Can polling of New York City be a window into the national environment? The latest NYT/Siena poll shows a big surge to Trump, but one not necessarily replicated in Philadelphia. One item of note from the crosstabs is that Trump’s share of the vote has tripled from Trump 2020 recalled vote among all nonwhite groups.
While Donald Trump remains the more trusted candidate to handle the economy, Harris has closed the gap.
Scott Tranter’s latest roundup of the forecasts as Election Day approaches..
A reminder from Josh Clinton at Good Authority that weighting decisions made by pollsters can shift the results substantially—by a lot more than the poll’s margin of error. (Chart courtesy of Jonathan Robinson.)
Are Republican pollsters skewing the averages? Some of the leading proponents of this idea in 2022 say not really.
A big controversy this year has been the use of recalled 2020 vote in weighting. This used to be a bad idea because people would mis-remember voting for the winner, but in our polarized time, more and more people accurately report who they voted for.
🗣️ Public Opinion
Our survey for the Economic Innovation Group finds that a vast majority of American workers are satisfied with their jobs and careers.
The gold-standard Michigan consumer sentiment survey has been misreporting actual consumer confidence because the online data collection it switched to skews more negative.
📰 Media Habits
Pew research takes a look at where Americans are getting political news from this election season.
Reddit’s usership has grown 47% over the last year as people increasingly add “Reddit” to their search queries to avoid AI slop.
