What to watch for on Election Night

Our final polls, bellwether counties, when states will report, geographic sorting, weighting choices drive poll results, the recalled vote debate, the survey change that tanked consumer confidence

No. 337 | November 1st, 2024

🇺🇲 2024

55,131,009 Americans have voted, per TargetSmart. 

It’s getting tighter out there. Harris is now down to a 1.1 point lead in the national polls. 

• Silver Bulletin: Harris +1.1 (T+0.2)

• 538: Harris +1.4 (T+0.3)

• NYT Upshot: Even (T+1)

• The Hill/DDHQ: Harris +0.8 (T+0.2)

• RCP: Trump +0.5 (T+0.7)

• Cook Political: Harris +1.2 (T+0.3)

• VoteHub: Harris +1.7 (T+0.4)

• RacetotheWH: Harris +1.7 (T+0.3)

Average of the Averages: Harris +1.1 (T+0.3)

Our final national poll has Harris up 2 in both the full ballot and head-to-head. But in the Rust Belt states, our polls released yesterday have Trump opening up a 5-point lead on the full ballot in Pennsylvania with ties in Michigan and Wisconsin. 

I wrote earlier this fall to beware of a situation where the Rust Belt was polling too close to the national polling average. In 2016 and 2020, the Rust Belt polled within one point in either direction of the national polls. 

Both years, they ended up 2.8 points to the right of the national …