What unlikely voters think

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No. 404 | June 12, 2026

📊 Where unlikely voters differ the most from likely voters

Marquette Law School poll’s Charles Franklin has published a great summary table breaking down views on various topics between the likely, registered, and unregistered electorates.

You may have heard me harp on this before: polls can look really different depending on whether you’re interviewing all adults or just likely voters. Usually, a poll of all adults will show Trump approval in the 30s while a poll of registered or likely voters is more likely than not to show it in the 40s.

What’s really interesting is not how the overall number shifts based on the inclusion of different respondents, but what these marginal groups themselves believe. So I fed this table to Claude and it had it run an imputation to find what the unlikely voter in Marquette polling thinks, be that registered but not likely voters or unregistered adults. These numbers are just estimates based on the rounded table, and may be noisy, …