What would it take to swing the election?
George primary vote history revelations, unexpected dynamics, Larry Hogan's prospects, Dems turn against voter registration, online conversations are just as toxic as ever
No. 309 | April 4, 2024
🗳️ Elections
“538’s Swing-O-Matic shows what could happen in the 2024 election if President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump gains ground with different demographic groups — and if turnout shifts among others. To build it, we used data from the U.S. Census Bureau and several pollsters to estimate turnout and vote choice in the 2020 election sorted by five key demographic traits: age, education, sex, income and race. The starting map reflects vote preference and turnout levels from 2020, adjusted for demographic shifts since then.
Use the buttons below, or scroll down the page, to explore how hypothetical changes in vote choice and turnout among different groups could alter the outcome of the 2024 election. Or, click the button to create your own election scenario! (Important note: The four hypotheticals below use swings among groups for demons…
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