No. 316 | May 24, 2024
📊 2024: The Polls
Biden defectors: Under 45, TikTokers, Joe Rogan fans
Republicans now depend on disengaged voters.
The polls won’t get much more predictive before Election Day.
The Democratic party ID advantage among Black voters remains stable. But Trump still gets an historically high share of the vote for a Republican.
It’s not just minority voters trending towards Trump. In the latest crosstab aggregate, Trump gains 3.5 points since 2020 among white college graduates.
Trump’s character ratings are mostly unchanged since 2020. It’s Biden’s that have plummeted — especially on effectively managing the government.
In the battlegrounds, the choice boils down to who can do something about inflation.
Inflation is anything but transitory in Echelon’s focus groups. It remains THE issue — even outweighing doubts about Trump’s chaotic four years in office.
“Inflation, gas, it’s almost like we’re paying for the epidemic twice over. Like it seems like everything has doubled and tripled in price from what it was four years ago… He is not helping the American people at all.” — Black female, 53, Maricopa County, AZ, Biden in 2020
“I'm switching back to Trump cautiously because of the chaos that he was giving us for four years beforehand, and that’s why I had voted for Biden. But after four years of Biden and seeing the stuff that's going on, that's why I'm changing it. Get back to Trump again and push for the best.” — White male, 58, Maricopa County, AZ, Biden in 2020.
📊 Public Opinion
Fewer young people are identifying as Democrats.
🎤 Culture
Taylor Swift may not quite be history’s biggest recording artist…
😂 Humor
First, there was Defund the HOA. Now people are using AI to uncover selective HOA enforcement.
Google AI recycles an 11 year old Reddit suggestion of glue in pizza sauce.