Why ________ won

Pre-gaming the reasons for Harris and Trump

The question I get asked the most that I also hate answering the most is who I think will win. The truth is that most pollsters don’t have very much top-level-clearance, super-secret information that’s much better than what’s publicly available—which is a lot. (I could maybe answer this question better if you wanted to spring for a private N=2000 nightly tracker in the battlegrounds, but that’s a discussion for next cycle.)

The data tells us that the probabilities are 50-50. My own personal hunch is that Trump wins. But I don’t weight my hunches very highly—maybe at 10% vs. 90% for the data. So let’s call it a 55 percent chance that Trump wins.

The more interesting question (that I don’t get asked as much) is if so-and-so wins, why will they have won? I’ll try to answer that in this post for both candidates. And in the spirit of questioning my initial biases and assumptions, I’ll state the case for Kamala Harris first.

Why Harris will have won if she wins

She fulfilled voters’ basic ask…