Why Biden is playing to his base

The enthusiasm gap, 2016 all over again, pendulum counties, districts from 2008 to 2020, the Hispanic working class, Democrats and men, clustering Congress, 10 years of The Upshot

No. 313 | May 3, 2024

📊 2024: The Polls

@PatrickRuffini: What is Trump's ceiling? Why is Biden focusing more on his base than swing voters? A polling experiment finds some answers.  At first blush, Biden appears to have a higher ceiling than Trump. 43% say there's ZERO chance they'd vote for him, 48% for Trump. (X)

Monica Potts: Voters Don't Like Biden's Economy -- but Why?  (538)

“Americans have been sour on the economy since President Joe Biden was sworn into office. As we head into an election season that is likely to be a 2020 rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump, voters give Republicans and Trump an edge on economic issues. An April 12-14 poll from Echelon Insights found that 57 percent of all voters somewhat or strongly disapproved of the way Biden is handling the economy, and favored Trump on making the economy work better by 48 percent to 40 percent. That's only a recent example of what surveys have routinely shown: Voters aren't happy with Biden's handling of …