Why the 2024 election is happening out of order

Biden is experiencing the perils of presiding over his opponent's second term

Let’s envision an alternative universe where a “normal” Republican had won the 2016 election. With strong economic performance and a relatively uncontroversial first three years, they start out 2020 as a favorite for re-election. The Democratic primary is a slugfest between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Joe Biden declines to be drawn out of a comfortable retirement to run, as the stakes seem too low and the race unwinnable to boot.

Then the coronavirus hits. Normal Republican President projects steadiness and calm, and like other world leaders, their approval ratings rise and stay high throughout 2020. They shepherd the CARES package through Congress and pass another round of stimulus that summer. That November, they win re-election against Sanders by a margin of 52 to 47 percent.

But problems start to mount in the first few months of the second term. Inflation begins creeps up to 8 percent, a time bomb set off by the 2020 stimulus. Presidential job approval plummets from the h…