Young people *do* move to the right as they get older
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Young people *do* move to the right as they get older
Plus: Why we still need to label Millennials, how Trump and conservatism became one and the same, and why those pesky pre-checked recurring donation boxes aren't going away anytime soon
No. 269 | June 2, 2023
👫 Demographics
Nate Cohn: Millennials Are Not an Exception. They’ve Moved to the Right. (The New York Times 🔒)
“Fifteen years ago, a new generation of young voters propelled Barack Obama to a decisive victory that augured a new era of Democratic dominance. Fifteen years later, those once young voters aren’t so young — and aren’t quite so Democratic.
In the 2020 presidential election, voters who were 18 to 29 in 2008 backed Joe Biden by 55 percent to 43 percent, according to our estimates, a margin roughly half that of Mr. Obama’s 12 years earlier.
The exit polls show it even closer, with Mr. Biden winning by just 51-45 among voters who were 18 to 27 in 2008 (exit polls report results among those 30 to 39, not 30 to 41 — the group that was 18 to 29 in 2008).”
Kristen Soltis Anderson: In defense of the term "Millennial" (Codebook)
“For whatever reason - perhaps, just spitballing here, my extensive digital footprint writing about Millennials for the last decade and a half and a book literally titled The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America And How Republicans Can Keep Up - Instagram is really convinced that I want to see a steady stream of content about the differences between Millennials and Gen Z.
But let me tell you, there are quite a few people out there who get really spun up about the use of generational labels like ‘Millennial’. Even Millennials themselves didn’t warm to the term. Whenever I’ve heard pushback about using a term like ‘Millennial’, I’ve always defaulted to an appeal to authority: The Pew Research Center says generations are real and here’s how they define them.
So you can imagine my surprise and sadness at learning that Pew has decided to largely dispense with generational analysis moving forward.”
Michelle Faverio, Justin Nortey, Jeff Diamant, and Gregory A. Smith: Online Religious Services Appeal to Many Americans, but Going in Person Remains More Popular (Pew Research Center)
“About a quarter of U.S. adults regularly watch religious services online or on TV, and most of them are highly satisfied with the experience, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
The survey of more than 11,000 U.S. adults was conducted in November 2022, well after the height of the coronavirus pandemic but before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared an end to the COVID-19 public health emergency.
It’s been clear for more than two years that the video technology that helped Americans stay in touch with relatives, friends and colleagues during COVID-19 lockdowns was also helping many to connect with houses of worship. From kitchens or living rooms, in their Sunday best, pajamas or something in between, those with an internet connection and a screen could pray along with other virtual attendees, listen to sermons, and sing along with choirs, all in real time.”
🗳️ Elections
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux: Are Black And Hispanic Americans Abandoning Biden? (FiveThirtyEight)
“President Biden has an enthusiasm problem — again. Since he kicked off his reelection bid in late April, asking Americans for another four years to ‘finish this job,’ there’s been plenty of attention to his potential weaknesses among key voting blocs, particularly Black voters. New data from the 2022 midterm elections also reinforces earlier election analysis suggesting that turnout was down among Black and Hispanic Americans compared to the 2018 midterms, underscoring concerns that support for Biden could be slipping among voters of color.
We took a look at the numbers and found that yes, Biden’s approval has dropped dramatically among Black Americans since he took office in January 2021. But the biggest decline wasn’t among Black Americans: It was among Hispanic Americans.”
Michael Tesler: Why Trump Is Polling Much Better Among Very Conservative Primary Voters Than In 2016 (FiveThirtyEight)
“Shortly before the 2016 presidential primaries began, the influential conservative outlet the National Review devoted an entire edition of its biweekly magazine to making the ideological case ‘against Trump.’
The issue featured essays from over 20 prominent conservatives explaining why Donald Trump’s campaign was ‘a menace to conservatism.’ It also included a scathing editorial from the National Review’s editors, which disparaged the Republican Party’s then-presidential frontrunner as ‘a philosophically unmoored political opportunist who would trash the broad conservative ideological consensus within the GOP in favor of a free-floating populism with strong-man overtones.’”
“The large-scale voter contact effort that conservatives have put at the center of their political operations in recent years is plagued with issues, according to more than a dozen people who’ve worked in GOP-aligned field operations and internal data obtained by NBC News. Those issues include fraudulent and untrustworthy data entries, akin to what occurred in Nevada, as well as allegations of lax hiring practices and a lack of accountability.
Issues with canvassing arose in two of the closest losses of the 2022 election, four people familiar with those operations said. They were Nevada, where Laxalt’s narrow loss allowed Democrats to keep control of the Senate, and Georgia, where the GOP nominee for Senate, Herschel Walker, was ultimately defeated in a runoff election.”
📊 Public Opinion
Andy Cerda: Family time is far more important than other aspects of life for most Americans (Pew Research Center)
“Americans overwhelmingly view spending time with family as one of the most important things in their life, far outranking other personal priorities, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
About three-quarters of U.S. adults (73%) rate spending time with family as one of the most important things to them personally, regardless of how much time they actually devote to it. Nine-in-ten say they view it either as one of the most important things or as very important but not the most important thing.”
🔬 Academia
