The Virginia redistricting referendum is in the books and, as expected, Democrats have succeeded in passing their 10-1 map, albeit by an underwhelming 3-4 point margin. That performance stands in stark contrast to their frothy performances in recent special elections.
I want to focus less on the margin than the turnout, which was not only well to the right of 2025, but also 2024 and maybe even 2021—when Republicans won.
Republicans obviously didn’t succeed in defeating the referendum, but it showed that the fight was winnable, and more money invested early might have made a difference.
Absent a victory, Virginia provides Republicans with a rare optimistic counterpoint to the building narrative of a Blue Wave. If the fight is framed the right way, Republican voters will turn out the same or better relative to Democrats than 2024, even with an unpopular president in the White House. And if they recreate this performance even to some degree, they are virtually assured control of the U.S. S…