The Intersection

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The Wedgewood Affair
Fake pollsters are a problem. So is the audience inclined to believe them because it wants more polls that reinforce its partisan priors.
 • Patrick Ruffini
The election indicator that beats them all
Watch for state level polling error, follow the money, the new polls that are old news, friends don’t let friends obsess over early vote data…
 • Patrick Ruffini
All of our midterm data in one place
Dems cross the Valley of Redistricting, build your own Senate model, next steps for the realignment, another Midwest polling error, reluctant…
 • Patrick Ruffini
The cost of ignoring the cost of living
The midterm history, Midwest polling error, Democratic primary surge, how DC is second only to the Bay Area, AI poll respondents fail, guess who’s not…
 • Patrick Ruffini

September 2026

What’s real and what’s not
Spending tells the tale, conservative podcasters dropping Trump, a Hispanic and red state surge, VoteHub’s early vote tracker, rising concerns about…
 • Patrick Ruffini
The Intersection’s 2026 Polling Index
A better generic ballot built from 450 state and district polls and counting
 • Patrick Ruffini
Against p(doom)
Real safety issues should be addressed, but we all need to relax a bit
 • Patrick Ruffini
The last moment of American unity
A look back at public opinion after 9/11
 • Patrick Ruffini
Introducing the 2026 Swingometer
Don’t call it a forecast
 • Patrick Ruffini
The data driving Democratic optimism
Fundamentals vs. geography, a sneak preview, summer polling problems redux, where candidates go, when campaigns spend, the non-working class working…
 • Patrick Ruffini

August 2026

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