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The Pew report and the primary
Confirming Trump's more diverse coalition, Mamdani romps in the "Commie Corridor," luxury beliefs, inclusive populism, active vs. passive news…
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Patrick Ruffini
Zohran probably can’t get through the Working Class Wall
Why a neighborhood-level analysis of the Mayor's race gives Cuomo the advantage
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Patrick Ruffini
New York City's swing neighborhoods
One Virginia candidate's hometown disadvantage, the Democrats' losing coalition, free trade is now popular, the ideological happiness gap, AI users…
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Patrick Ruffini
How American populism compares with the rest of the world
Abortion opinion by state, views of the LA protests, partisan media consumption, Sam Altman's AI optimism, academic papers written by LLMs, ticket…
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Patrick Ruffini
1
Liberalism can't be counted on to reform itself
The mainstream left's dangerous game in New York City
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Patrick Ruffini
The collapsing turnout of Democratic men
A warning for the party from the 2024 voter file data
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Patrick Ruffini
1

May 2025

My piece in The Atlantic
The triple Trump swing counties, new racial voting data by state, Republicans' re-emerging electoral college advantage, persuasion beats turnout, don’t…
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Patrick Ruffini
Catalist shows a durable partisan realignment
How the polls were bad in 2024, a more diverse electorate, low Dem ratings may not matter, Latino partisanship, community types, AI snitching
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Patrick Ruffini
2
Runaway AI could be the issue of 2028
One weird trick to fix recall vote, Census population growth estimates, mainline Protestants, Americans owning stocks, the Dem technology landscape
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Patrick Ruffini
Prediction markets didn’t get the Pope right, but this did
New Governor ratings, Trump approval on 52 issues, what makes a good Democrat or Republican, AI replacing new grads — and McKinsey consultants
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Patrick Ruffini

April 2025

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