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The low-propensity voter theory of everything
Don't spend your time thinking about a MAGA crackup. Think about this instead.
Nov 21
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Patrick Ruffini
17
1
4
The Internet vs. real life, quantified
Political Tribes Quiz results, Realignment wakeup call, why Texas isn't a dummymander, moderation still wins, Nate Silver's blistering takedown, a key…
Nov 14
•
Patrick Ruffini
14
2
3
What's your political tribe?
Echelon's Political Tribes Quiz is here. See how the terminally online compare with actual voters.
Nov 12
•
Patrick Ruffini
15
6
4
What the heck just happened?
An iron law of off-year turnout, the Jersey Hispanic vote, low-propensity voters are obsessed with affordability, Dems win economy voters 2-to-1, NYC…
Nov 7
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Patrick Ruffini
22
3
2
Where are the centrist insurgents?
Democrats need to fight the system, not just be more moderate.
Nov 4
•
Patrick Ruffini
34
9
6
October 2025
Will Democrats decide to win?
2025 endgame, AAPOR's 2024 polling postmortem, how AI hurts productivity, cooperation with China, trends on moral disapproval, immigration as a crime…
Oct 31
•
Patrick Ruffini
22
1
5
The state of the parties
Dems as the party of the rich, party ID swings Democratic, the Jersey fundamentals, the science of open-seat Governor's races, redistricting war widens…
Oct 24
•
Patrick Ruffini
12
1
3
The mother of all redistricting wars
How far the redraws can go, Hispanic cities vs. retiree towns in Jersey, 2024 voters spent 21 seconds a day on politics on their smartphones, AP…
Oct 17
•
Patrick Ruffini
13
2
3
Wes Moore and JB Pritzker make their debut on the 2028 Democratic primary model
Gavin's lead narrows with a bigger field
Oct 16
•
Patrick Ruffini
11
3
1
A bigger government vs. a bigger life
Trump is who you thought he was, mapping ideology in all 50 states, the MAHA curious, how parents manage screen time, campaign vendor Survivor, where…
Oct 10
•
Patrick Ruffini
14
1
2
New Jersey is in play
Early voting trends, the next wave of redistricting, mapping independents, the enemy is within, social media news rises while social media falls, the…
Oct 3
•
Patrick Ruffini
10
1
2
September 2025
“It’s not just _____, it’s _____”
AI seizes the House of Commons, 2024 by precinct, New York City polling experiments, views on crime and vaccines, a housing crisis, the rising populist…
Sep 19
•
Patrick Ruffini
11
1
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