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November 2024

How Trump seized the battlegrounds
Piercing the bubble, signs of racial realignment in the South, throwing the Groups under the bus, age depolarization was real, workplace politics
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Patrick Ruffini
1
The realignment is here
The first GOP popular vote win in 20 years, the Red Wave hit everywhere, 2024 realigned the electorate as much as 2016, less secure voters moved towards…
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Patrick Ruffini
11
The book that explains the 2024 election
Revisiting Party of the People, one year later
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Patrick Ruffini
4
Why ________ won
Pre-gaming the reasons for Harris and Trump
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Patrick Ruffini
What to watch for on Election Night
Our final polls, bellwether counties, when states will report, geographic sorting, weighting choices drive poll results, the recalled vote debate, the…
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Patrick Ruffini

October 2024

Will Arab Americans flip Michigan?
Or will recent MAGA underperformances keep the state in Democratic hands?
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Patrick Ruffini
Maximum anxiety
Predicting turnout, the freakout over polls, the freakout over early voting, the see-sawing media race, unmarried women for Harris, young nonwhite men…
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Patrick Ruffini
North Carolina, State of Equilibrium
Can Kamala Harris reverse her party's presidential curse in the Tarheel State?
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Patrick Ruffini
1
The 21 places that will decide the election
My NYT essay + interactive, the polls tighten, 538 looks at Wisconsin and Georgia, polling error goes both ways, YouGov's models, a Polymarket…
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Patrick Ruffini
The trouble with modeled partisanship
One more caveat when trying to read early-voting tea leaves
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Patrick Ruffini
Actually, you should look at margins, not vote share
When it comes to polls, 50 percent is just another number
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Patrick Ruffini
29
© 2024 Patrick Ruffini
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