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What happened in Michigan?
Crossover voters, early voters, or money? Plus: the censored DNC autopsy chapter, hallmarks of AI writing, who's #1 in AI use, the youth gender gap…
Aug 7
•
Patrick Ruffini
18
2
1
July 2026
The incredible shrinking swing seat
Black turnout rose post-Callais, what Dems need in the House & Senate, special election eras, rethinking Latinos, Echelon trends, defining the elites…
Jul 31
•
Patrick Ruffini
21
3
Poor college grads vs. rich non-grads
The turn against data centers, midterm forecasts come online, D+4 party ID, where people still live in their birth state, EV is lost on the Brits, where…
Jul 24
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Patrick Ruffini
17
2
The economic policy-branding paradox
Voters love capitalism—and rent control
Jul 21
•
Patrick Ruffini
28
2
5
Four takeaways from the 2026 Political Tribes
Conventional wisdom is mostly right, one candidate's obsession with Israel, how redistricting shifted the tipping point seat, new VoteHub tool, the…
Jul 10
•
Patrick Ruffini
40
11
250-maxxing
The people, places, and things that define America, new political tribes coming, NYT/Siena's methodological revolution, the Michigan ICS is broken…
Jul 3
•
Patrick Ruffini
17
3
June 2026
The DSA's big city takeover
...and why only the very rich and very poor are immune from it. Plus: prospects for the DSA going national, Ossoff might be too scripted, quants vs…
Jun 26
•
Patrick Ruffini
22
7
Fall of the Resistance
A 2028 contest between left- and right-populists is looking more and more possible
Jun 24
•
Patrick Ruffini
29
2
4
The 2026 models are here
Max gerrymandering, Americans like Big Tech, hard data on unlikely voters, common ground still exists, endorsements matter, the rise of involved fathers
Jun 19
•
Patrick Ruffini
19
2
What unlikely voters think
New Pew typology just dropped, state-level partisanship, roll your own redistricting, Fable 5, AI is generating 8 times more code for humans to sift…
Jun 12
•
Patrick Ruffini
21
1
1
May 2026
Is Blexas un-canceled?
Historic lows for incumbents, the base matters more than ever, the politics of 18-year olds, the cheapest races, people who use AI like it, the…
May 29
•
Patrick Ruffini
17
1
2
The vanishing battleground
From 239-196 to 222-113, Reform UK's conquest, the phones killing the future, collapsing reading scores, occupational bubbles, DDHQ precinct maps…
May 22
•
Patrick Ruffini
20
2
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