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Introducing the 2026 Swingometer
Don’t call it a forecast
Sep 8
•
Patrick Ruffini
18
1
3
The data driving Democratic optimism
Fundamentals vs. geography, a sneak preview, summer polling problems redux, where candidates go, when campaigns spend, the non-working class working…
Sep 4
•
Patrick Ruffini
16
5
August 2026
What’s data center opposition really about?
The HuggingFace report, AI flooding government agencies, Dems’ summer polling high, polls vs. prediction markets, Woke 1 started earlier, bogus online…
Aug 28
•
Patrick Ruffini
21
1
2
The fake poll epidemic
Nate Silver’s bullish forecast, prediction market blind spots, what’s risen faster than inflation, your brain on AI
Aug 21
•
Patrick Ruffini
19
1
4
Why Senate polling is always worse in summer
For four cycles in a row, the polls have overestimated Democrats. Here’s what history shows us happens next.
Aug 18
•
Patrick Ruffini
27
1
What happened in Michigan?
Crossover voters, early voters, or money? Plus: the censored DNC autopsy chapter, hallmarks of AI writing, who's #1 in AI use, the youth gender gap…
Aug 7
•
Patrick Ruffini
19
2
1
July 2026
The incredible shrinking swing seat
Black turnout rose post-Callais, what Dems need in the House & Senate, special election eras, rethinking Latinos, Echelon trends, defining the elites…
Jul 31
•
Patrick Ruffini
21
3
Poor college grads vs. rich non-grads
The turn against data centers, midterm forecasts come online, D+4 party ID, where people still live in their birth state, EV is lost on the Brits, where…
Jul 24
•
Patrick Ruffini
17
2
The economic policy-branding paradox
Voters love capitalism—and rent control
Jul 21
•
Patrick Ruffini
28
2
5
Four takeaways from the 2026 Political Tribes
Conventional wisdom is mostly right, one candidate's obsession with Israel, how redistricting shifted the tipping point seat, new VoteHub tool, the…
Jul 10
•
Patrick Ruffini
40
11
250-maxxing
The people, places, and things that define America, new political tribes coming, NYT/Siena's methodological revolution, the Michigan ICS is broken…
Jul 3
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Patrick Ruffini
17
3
June 2026
The DSA's big city takeover
...and why only the very rich and very poor are immune from it. Plus: prospects for the DSA going national, Ossoff might be too scripted, quants vs…
Jun 26
•
Patrick Ruffini
22
7
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