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End of the double haters?
Undecideds coming off the fence, a more "typical" election, Biden didn't hurt downballot Dems, evaluating the VP prospects, young and old Black voters…
13 hrs ago
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Patrick Ruffini
4
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End of the double haters?
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It was always Harris
A Politics 101 primer on why your favorite Midwestern governor never stood a chance
Jul 23
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Patrick Ruffini
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It was always Harris
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A popular vote tie won’t be good enough for Biden
No.
Jul 12
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Patrick Ruffini
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A popular vote tie won’t be good enough for Biden
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Is Arizona the Democrats’ Last Sun Belt Hope?
From crucible of conservatism to ultimate swing state, how Arizona charted its own political path
Jul 8
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Patrick Ruffini
2
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Is Arizona the Democrats’ Last Sun Belt Hope?
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June 2024
Debate debacle
Silver speaks, The Upshot's poll tracker, Trump more trusted on democracy, Bowman vs. Latimer, tracking ballot access, obscure Biden cabinet officials…
Jun 28
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Patrick Ruffini
2
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Debate debacle
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Low-propensity blues
Rich whites are turning into Democrats, voter pessimism, state legislative outlook, Biden's double-hater strategy
Jun 21
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Patrick Ruffini
1
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Low-propensity blues
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Forecasting dealer's choice
Nate Silver's OG pollster ratings, legislative forecasts, public opinion as a triangle, America's changing suburbs, politics and social media, East vs…
Jun 14
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Patrick Ruffini
1
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Forecasting dealer's choice
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What's changed post-conviction?
Democratic Senate survivors, how low trust explains the realignment, the Latino diploma divide, cultural issues in 2024, the myth of youth leftism, the…
Jun 7
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Patrick Ruffini
5
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What's changed post-conviction?
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May 2024
The verdict and the data
What voters remember most about Trump's presidency, 40 years of Cook ratings, declinism in a single chart, elite university encampments, concert cash…
May 31
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Patrick Ruffini
1
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The verdict and the data
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Battleground Brief: An Arizona sneak peek
Previewing the Arizona mega chart for paid subscribers
May 29
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Patrick Ruffini
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Battleground Brief: An Arizona sneak peek
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Who are Biden's defectors?
Introducing a new format for the weekly roundup
May 24
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Patrick Ruffini
2
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Who are Biden's defectors?
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Can Trump turn the Silver State to gold?
A deeper look at Nevada, where Trump is outperforming his 2020 numbers more than any other battleground state in the country
May 21
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Patrick Ruffini
6
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Can Trump turn the Silver State to gold?
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