No. 322 | July 12, 2024
🇺🇲 2024
Biden not only needs to reverse his current deficit in national polls, but pick up one or two points extra to overcome Trump’s Electoral College advantage.
Earlier this week, I posted a deep dive on the political geography of Arizona, which leans Trump but has been trending Democratic the last few cycles.
The Cook Political Report releases its presidential polling average. 🔒
Voters have steadily lost confidence in Biden’s mental stamina every year he’s been president.
With Dems (actually) in disarray, Sabato’s Crystal Ball looks at the potential fallout downballot.
🗣️ Public Opinion
The Wedding Party: the marriage rate is higher among 30-50 year old U.S. Republicans than their Democratic counterparts.
The Republican advantage endures even in divorce—but only for men. Divorced men tend to support Trump more than any other group.
🌎 Global
Right-wing populist parties do better when they adopt left-wing economic positions.
🤖 Artificial Intelligence
Clever workaround for paying for ChatGPT.
👫 Demographics
Dramatic decline in teen substance abuse since the 1970s.
The marriage/party graph makes sense. Luxury beliefs are easier to believe when you don't have to worry about the next generations.